Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET: At the close in NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.20%, while the S&P 500 index declined 0.38%, and the NASDAQ Composite index lost 0.67%. Wall Street indexes fell on Tuesday, weighed chiefly by losses in technology and AI-linked stocks after a report raised questions over cloud major Oracle’s margins.
Oracle Corporation lost 0.5% in aftermarket trade following a 2.4% drop during the session, after The Information reported that the company’s margins on its chips rental fees were smaller than markets were hoping, raising questions over Oracle’s greater AI ambitions. The report sparked losses across tech and AI stocks, with major NVIDIA Corporation falling 0.3%, while Alphabet Inc shed 1.8%. Nvidia slipped in aftermarket trade after Bloomberg reported it was planning to invest up to USD 2 billion in xAI, as the latter moves to acquire more Nvidia chips. Tesla Inc was also weaker on Wall Street, falling nearly 5% after the reveal of two new low-cost electric vehicles largely underwhelmed. The company unveiled low-cost versions of its Model 3 and Y, but analysts saw the prices as still too high to substantially boost lagging vehicle sales. Tech stocks were due for some profit-taking after rallying over the past week and driving Wall Street to a series of record highs. Despite Tuesday’s losses, the sector still remained largely underpinned by optimism over AI.
A slew of Fed officials are set to speak in the coming days, offering up more cues on the U.S. economy and an ongoing government shutdown. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan is set to speak on Wednesday, while the minutes of the Fed’s September meeting are due then. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to talk on Thursday. Markets are pricing in a nearly 100% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in October, following a similar move in September, CME Fedwatch showed. Signs of a cooling labor market may further pave these bets. But markets were still awaiting more definitive cues on the economy, especially as a government shutdown delayed the release of several key data points.U.S. President Donald Trump has said he would be open to negotiating with Democrats over healthcare subsidies, possibly opening a path for a detente in the impasse in Washington.
• EUROPEAN MARKET: European stock markets edged mostly lower on Tuesday, as investors kept tabs on ongoing political turbulence in France and the United States that threatened to dampen enthusiasm around artificial intelligence dealmaking.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 slipped by 0.2% and the Dax in Germany fell by 0.1%. The FTSE 100 in the United Kingdom and the CAC 40 in France were both mostly flat. The CAC 40 fell sharply on Monday on news of a surprise resignation of the country’s new Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu.
Shares of European luxury players rose on Tuesday, pushing the European luxuries index to its highest level since late May this year, as designing debuts among fashion houses and a push for affordability gave investors hope that the sector was set for a gradual comeback. The rally was led by the big French names, with Kering, Christian Dior and LVMH rising. Luxury groups in Europe have been seeking to turn around their fortunes that had soured as U.S. tariffs and slower demand in China put a dent in their profits.
•ASIAN MARKET: Asian stocks advanced on Tuesday as technology stocks tracked gains in their U.S. peers on persistent optimism over artificial intelligence.
Japanese markets continued to outperform, hitting fresh record highs after rallying as the election of a fiscally dovish prime ministerial candidate dampened bets on more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. But Asian trading volumes were muted on account of market holidays in China, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
• COMMODITIES: Oil prices steadied on Tuesday as investors weighed a smaller-than-expected increase to OPEC+ output in November against signs of a potential supply glut. Brent crude futures settled down 2 cents, or 0.03%, to USD 65.45 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 4 cents, or 0.06%, to USD 61.71.
U.S. power consumption will hit record highs in 2025 and 2026, the Energy Information Administration said in its short-term energy outlook on Tuesday. The EIA projected consumption to rise to 4,196 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 and 4,305 billion kWh in 2026, up from a record 4,097 billion kWh in 2024. Those demand increases come in part from data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency as homes and businesses use more electricity and less fossil fuel for heat and transportation.
• INDONESIA: The JCI closed slightly higher, rising +0.36% to the green zone at 8169.28. Keep an eye on banking stocks, especially those approaching oversold support areas, as their current valuations appear attractive for accumulation. For more aggressive investors, pay attention to momentum and sector rotation, particularly in conglomerate stocks and those with promising narratives that could extend their uptrend potential — such as Emtek Group and Trio Mining Salim Group (BRMS, DEWA, BUMI, etc.). However, if conglomerate stocks start breaking below their MA20, it’s advisable to reduce position weightings. Meanwhile, if the pullback continues in gold-related commodity stocks, they could be considered for short-term trading opportunities once signs of weakness begin to fade.
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