Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : The benchmark S&P 500 edged up 0.1% to 6,582.70, reversing a decline of as much as 1.5%. The NASDAQ Composite rose 0.2% to 21,879.18, erasing losses of up to 2.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1% to 46,504.60, but rebounded from a drop of as much as 1.4%. On a weekly basis, the Dow rose 3%, the S&P 500 gained 3.4%, and the NASDAQ advanced 4.44%—marking the first weekly gain in six weeks for all three major indexes.
Markets also digested Friday’s U.S. payrolls data (released while markets were closed for Good Friday). Nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 in March after a revised decline of 133,000 in February, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%, signaling a resilient labor market.
Investor sentiment weakened again after Donald Trump posted on Truth Social about plans for “Power Plant Day” and “Bridge Day” in Iran, alongside threats to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before a Tuesday 8:00 p.m. ET deadline, raising fears of further conflict escalation.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks mostly declined on Thursday as hopes for a near-term ceasefire in Iran faded after Donald Trump pledged to intensify military operations in the coming weeks, pushing oil prices higher. However, markets managed to trim earlier losses.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell 0.2%, Germany’s DAX dropped 0.8%, France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.2%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 outperformed with a 0.7% gain. The decline reversed a two-day rally driven by hopes the war was nearing an end.
In the energy sector, Shell is reportedly in advanced talks with Venezuela to expand offshore gas development targeting around 20 trillion cubic feet of reserves. The plan involves routing gas to Trinidad and Tobago for LNG processing at Atlantic LNG, where Shell holds a major stake.
However, challenges remain, including stake transitions from Chevron and complications related to Russian-linked ownership in some of the fields.
• ASIAN MARKET :Asian stocks fell on Thursday, reversing earlier April gains as Donald Trump signaled an escalation of the Iran war over the next 2–3 weeks.
South Korea’s KOSPI was the worst performer, dropping 3.7%, followed by Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-2%) and TOPIX (-1.2%). Both markets reversed priorsession rebounds and moved back toward March lows.
In China, the CSI 300 fell 0.7% and the Shanghai Composite declined 0.5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1% due to weakness in tech stocks. Risk appetite deteriorated sharply after Trump’s remarks on escalating military actions against Iran, dashing hopes of de-escalation.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices opened higher on Monday after the Easter holiday, as the U.S.–Israel war with Iran continued to disrupt global supply. Brent Crude rose USD 2.4 (+2.2%) to USD 111.43 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained USD 3 (+2.7%) to USD 114.57 per barrel. Donald Trump increased pressure on Iran on Sunday, threatening to target power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed in the red at 7,026.78. The next resistance is seen around 7,200–7,300, with downside risks still present following the release of High Shareholder Composition (HSC) data, which negatively impacted heavily weighted stocks such as Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN) and Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA). For now, a short-term scalping trading strategy appears more prudent amid heightened global volatility and elevated oil prices, which continue to weigh on the index despite some recent easing in tensions. The market is also awaiting clarity on policies related to free float requirements and potential MSCI-related overhang.
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