Today’s Outlook:

 

• US MARKET : Major Wall Street indices weakened: Dow Jones -0.2%, S&P 500 -1%, and Nasdaq -1.6%, pressured by sell-offs in tech stocks after mixed earnings reports. Meta plunged 11.3%—its worst drop in three years—due to plans for higher capital expenditures on AI. Microsoft fell 2.9% after recording record-high capital spending and signaling further cost increases.

Market sentiment was also driven by developments in U.S.–China trade relations. President Trump described his meeting with President Xi as “very good” and said a trade deal could be reached soon, including annual agreements on rare earth supplies and the resumption of U.S. soybean imports by China. Trump also cut tariffs on fentanyl to 10%, while other tariffs remain around 47%.

The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00% for the second time, but signaled caution on future cuts, citing mixed economic signals and inflation that has not yet stabilized.

 

• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks traded in a mixed fashion Thursday, as investors digested more corporate earnings, easing global trade tensions, regional growth data and a rate decision by the European Central Bank. The DAX index in Germany gained 0.1%, while the CAC 40 in France dropped 0.5% and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. was flat.

The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold Thursday for the third meeting in a row, as policymakers adjusted to an economic backdrop of low inflation and steady growth. The ECB maintained its key deposit rate at 2%, the level it cut to in June, having halved this key rate from a record high of 4% in the space of around a year.

 

 

•ASIAN MARKET: Japan stocks were higher after the close on Thursday and At the close in Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.07% to hit a new all time high

 

 

• COMMODITIES : Oil prices held steady on Thursday as investors assessed a potential trade truce between the United States and China after U.S. President Donald Trump lowered tariffs on China following a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea. Brent futures rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at USD 65.00 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 9 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at USD 60.57. Trump agreed to reduce tariffs on China to 47% from 57% in a one-year deal in exchange for Beijing resuming U.S. soybean purchases, keeping rare earths exports flowing and cracking down on the illicit fentanyl trade.

 

 

• INDONESIA : The JCI closed higher at +0.22% to 8,184.06, with the next resistance still seen at 8,200–8,300. However, we see the potential for a negative RSI divergence, signaling caution as the index may correct toward 7,900 if it fails to break out.

Rotation to Old-Dividend Players & Back to Consumer: We continue to recommend shifting into stocks with dividend yields above bond yields amid current uncertainty. In the past week, capital rotation into solid dividend-yielding names has been attractive, despite performance challenges in sectors like banking (credit growth and asset quality concerns). Any correction in blue-chip dividend stocks could be a good opportunity for buy-on-weakness

Defensive sectors such as consumer, pharmaceuticals, and tobacco remain attractive. In tobacco, HMSP reported 3Q25 results showing improvement following prior one-off tax expenses, supported by stable excise taxes this year which helped margins. Tier-2 player WIIM also showed strong growth, recording +27% YoY in 9M25 with solid quarterly performance. The sector is now awaiting results from GGRM.

 

 

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