Today’s Outlook:

 

• US MARKET: The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 6,661.21 on Monday. The NASDAQ Composite rose 0.5% to 22,592.0 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 46,316.07 points.

 

Wall Street was supported by consistent bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further in the coming months, although upcoming data on inflation and the labor market is likely to factor into its decision. Wall Street indexes rose past concerns over a shutdown, as optimism over artificial intelligence and lower interest rates spurred more trades into tech shares. Strength in tech helped offset middling moves in other sectors, which were still pressured by concerns over a shutdown.

 

The U.S. government will enter a shutdown if Congress fails to extend funding beyond Tuesday Midnight (04.00 GMT Wednesday). Vice President JD Vance told reporters this scenario appeared to be likely after talks between President Donald Trump and bipartisan leaders marked little progress. The current political impasse is centered around disagreements over healthcare spending and social welfare programs. While the Republicans do hold a 53-seat majority in the Senate, they still need 60 votes to advance a proposed spending bill. Shutdowns have historically had little impact on corporate earnings. But they still tend to disrupt economic activity. The last time the government was shut down was for a period of 35 days in late-2018 to early-2019. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the shutdown reduced gross domestic product by about USD 11 billion. A shutdown this week could delay the release of September’s nonfarm payrolls data, which is due on Friday.

 

• EUROPEAN MARKET: The pan-European Stoxx 600 had climbed by 0.3%, while the Dax in Germany gained 0.2%, the CAC 40 in France rose 0.1%, and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. increased around 0.2%. European stock markets edged higher on Monday, as investors looked ahead to a trading week due to feature key economic data and a potential U.S. governmentshutdown.

 

• ASIAN MARKET: Most Asian stocks rose on Monday as technology shares rebounded from steep losses logged last week. South Korea’s KOSPI and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index were the top performers in Asia, rallying 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively. Regional tech shares rebounded after logging steep losses last week on some doubts over the artificial intelligence trade. Reports that the U.S. was mulling even more measures against imported semiconductors also rattled the sector. Tech was aided by a drop in Treasury yields, especially as U.S. PCE price index data on Friday read in line with expectations. The print drummed up bets on more interest rate cuts from the Fed, supporting Wall Street and also supporting risk into Monday’s Asian session. Broader Asian markets also mostly advanced. China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes rose 0.6% and 0.1%, respectively.

 

• COMMODITIES: Oil prices settled 3% lower on Monday as OPEC+ plans for another increase to oil output in November and the resumption of oil exports by Iraq’s Kurdistan region via Turkey raised the global supply outlook. Brent crude futures dropped USD 2.16, or 3.1%, to close at USD. 67.97 a barrel by 15.33 GMT after settling at their highest since July 31 on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down USD 2.27, or 3.45%, at USD 63.45.

 

• GOLD: Gold prices hit a record high above USD 3,800 per ounce as safehaven demand was boosted by concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown. Ongoing bets that the Fed will continue to lower interest rates also buoyed the yellow metal. Bullion tends to perform well when rates are brought down, as well as in times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty.

 

• INDONESIA: The JCI ended higher, rebounding 0.3% to 8,123.25. Banking stocks look attractive near support with valuations offering entry points. More aggressive investors may focus on momentum and sector rotation into conglomerates and stocks with compelling growth narratives. A pullback in gold-linked commodity plays could also present tactical trading opportunities.

 

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