Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : The S&P 500 weakened on Monday as technology stocks took a pause after a strong rally toward the end of the year. As of 4:00 p.m. ET, the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, while the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones each declined 0.5% (with the Dow down 249 points).
Technology stocks, particularly AI-related names, led the decline. NVIDIA fell more than 1%, followed by Palantir and Broadcom, as investors began reducing exposure to the technology sector toward year-end. Nevertheless, the technology sector remained the main driver of the market throughout the year and had brought the S&P 500 to a record high as recently as last Friday.
Trading volumes were expected to remain thin as many market participants began taking holidays ahead of the New Year, limiting index movements. Market sentiment continued to be supported by expectations that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, with the possibility of interest rate cuts next year increasingly reinforced by softer inflation data. Market attention was also focused on the potential year-end seasonal “Santa Claus rally.”
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stock markets traded mixed on Monday as trading resumed after the Christmas holiday. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.05%, while France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX index each gained 0.1%.
Defense sector stocks weakened following signs of progress in peace talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Trump stated that the two sides were “getting closer” to reaching a deal, although territorial issues remain unresolved. Shares of defense companies such as Leonardo SpA, Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, and BAE Systems declined. The sector’s weakness reflects concerns that a potential Russia–Ukraine peace agreement could pressure defense spending and military equipment orders in Europe.
On the corporate side, GAM Holding opposed the planned acquisition of Honda’s unit, Yutaka Giken, by Samvardhana Motherson International, arguing that the offer undervalues the company. GAM urged the transaction to be canceled or renegotiated at a significantly higher price. Meanwhile, BasePoint Capital agreed to acquire International Personal Finance Plc at 235 pence per share in cash, valuing the company at approximately £543 million and reflecting a significant premium to its previous share price.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian stock markets traded within narrow ranges on Monday due to thin year-end volumes and limited investor participation. Nevertheless, sentiment remained supported by expectations of easier U.S. monetary policy next year. Wall Street closed slightly lower on Friday, but optimism around the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” persisted, while U.S. index futures were relatively stable during the Asian session.
South Korea emerged as a positive outlier, with the KOSPI index surging 1.7%, led by technology stocks. SK Hynix jumped nearly 6% after being removed from an investment warning list, while Samsung rose 1.5%.
In other markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.3% and the TOPIX edged up 0.1%. China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.3%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.4%, while Singapore’s STI and India’s Nifty 50 were relatively flat. Australia’s ASX 200 declined 0.3%.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices rose by more than USD 1 on Monday as investors weighed developments in talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy regarding a potential deal to end the Ukraine war, amid concerns over possible supply disruptions in the Middle East. Brent crude rose 2.2% to USD 61.97 per barrel, while WTI gained 2.3% to USD 58.05.
Although supply disruptions had pushed prices to rebound from a near five-year low on December 16, oil prices are still heading toward their steepest annual decline since 2020. Year-to-date, Brent and WTI are down 19% and 21%, respectively, driven by rising global oil production and oversupply concerns.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed up 1.25% at 8,644.26 in Monday’s trading (29/12/2025), returning above the psychological 8,600 level after a correction in the previous session. Market breadth was positive, with advancing stocks far outnumbering declining ones.
The index’s gains were supported by most sectors, particularly consumer discretionary, infrastructure, and energy, while the technology sector corrected, indicating limited rotation. From a technical perspective, the IHSG has the potential to extend its gains as long as it remains above the 8,300–8,350 support area, with the nearest resistance at 8,700–8,750. Given these conditions, the recommended strategy is selective buying while maintaining disciplined risk management and the use of trailing stops.
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