Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, posting a 2.3% gain throughout October and marking its sixth consecutive monthly rally. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% on the day and advanced nearly 4.7% for the month, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1%, recording a 2.5% monthly increase.
The rally was driven by renewed investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) and strong quarterly results from several major tech companies. Amazon.com surged nearly 10% after its cloud unit posted solid growth and the company raised its performance outlook. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms also booked significant gains after reporting earnings that beat market expectations.
Market sentiment was further supported by the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00%.
In addition, easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing helped boost optimism. U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping struck a more conciliatory tone during their October 30 meeting, agreeing to reduce certain tariffs and delay restrictions on critical material exports.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European equities closed lower on Friday, ending a busy week on a negative tone as investors digested corporate earnings results and key interest rate decisions ahead of important inflation data releases. The DAX in Germany dropped 0.7%, the FTSE 100 in the U.K. declined, and the CAC 40 in France finished down 0.4%.
The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2% on Thursday for the third consecutive meeting, signaling that policy was in a “good place” as economic risks eased and the eurozone showed resilience amid lingering uncertainty. The eurozone consumer price index (CPI) is expected to come in at 2.1% YoY in October, slightly lower than 2.2% in the previous month, indicating inflation remains under control.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian markets traded mixed on Friday, with Japan and South Korea extending their record rallies led by the technology sector, while Chinese stocks weakened following disappointing factory activity data that signaled ongoing economic challenges.
Official figures showed China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the seventh straight month, while the services PMI rose only slightly. This reinforces concerns over China’s slow recovery and heightened expectations that Beijing may roll out additional stimulus.
In Japan, core Tokyo CPI rose 2.8% YoY in October, surpassing estimates and reflecting persistent inflationary pressures. Industrial production in September increased 2.2% MoM, above forecasts, while retail sales rose just 0.5% YoY,suggesting domestic demand remains fragile.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices strengthened in Asian trading on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to pause planned production increases in the upcoming quarter amid fears of a supply glut. Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure also supported prices due to potential supply disruptions. Brent crude futures for January climbed 0.6% to USD 65.18 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.7% to USD 61.01 per barrel as of 00:00 GMT.
• INDONESIA : The JCI (IHSG) closed down -0.25% to 8,163.88, with the next resistance still seen at the 8,200–8,300 range. However, we see a potential risk from a visible RSI negative divergence – caution is advised as the index may correct to the 7,900 level if it fails to break out convincingly.
Rotation to High-Dividend and Consumer Plays : We continue to recommend a shift toward stocks offering dividend yields above bond yields, as well as consumer goods as defensive plays amid persistent uncertainty. Over the past week, the largest foreign inflows went into BBCA, BREN, TLKM, MDKA and AADI, while the biggest outflows were seen in DSSA, AMMN, PTRO, ANTM and ICBP.
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