Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks closed largely flat on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected and Fed Chair Jerome Powell declined to comment on the Trump administration’s investigation into the central bank. The S&P 500 briefly breached the psychological 7,000 level for the first time early in the session, but ultimately ended virtually unchanged at 6,978.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also finished flat at 49,015.54, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2% to 23,857.45, ahead of major Big Tech earnings releases.
The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged, halting a series of three consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts. Markets had been watching for Powell’s response to the U.S. Department of Justice’s investigation into the renovation of a Fed building, but he declined to comment, referring to his earlier statement that the probe was politically motivated. Powell’s term ends in May, and President Donald Trump said he will soon announce his pick for the next Fed chair.
Earnings are also in focus this week, with four members of the “Magnificent Seven” set to report. Tesla, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft are scheduled to release results after Wednesday’s close, followed by Apple on Thursday. Their outlooks on AI spending, cloud demand, and consumer trends are expected to influence market direction.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks declined on Wednesday as investors digested a wave of corporate earnings while cautiously awaiting the latest U.S. Fed rate decision. Germany’s DAX fell 0.2%, France’s CAC 40 slid 1.1%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 dropped 0.5%.
German consumer sentiment is expected to improve in February, with the GfK consumer confidence index rising to -24.1 from -26.9 previously, beating expectations of a slight increase to -26.0. The European Central Bank meets next week and is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 2% for a fifth straight meeting, as eurozone inflation remains contained and the economy proves more resilient than expected. However, ECB policymakers may need to consider another rate cut if further euro strength weighs on inflation, Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher told the Financial Times.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian stock markets rose on Wednesday, driven by strong gains in technology and AI-related shares ahead of U.S. megacap earnings, which offset caution in some markets ahead of the Fed’s rate decision later in the day. Optimism was broad-based, with semiconductor and data-centrerelated stocks outperforming as investors positioned for positive earnings and AI-driven growth.
Markets are watching earnings for signs of sustained AI-related revenue and capital expenditure trends. South Korea’s KOSPI jumped as much as 2%, with Samsung up 1.5% and SK Hynix surging 5%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 2.4%, while the Hang Seng TECH sub-index gained 1.5%.
• COMMODITIES – OIL : Oil prices climbed to their highest levels since late September on Wednesday, supported by concerns over Iran and a weaker U.S. dollar. Brent settled up 1.23% or 83 cents at USD 68.40 per barrel, while WTI rose 1.31% or 82 cents to USD 63.21. Both benchmarks are on track for their biggest monthly gains since July 2023, with Brent up around 12% and WTI about 10%
• COMMODITIES – GOLD :Gold prices surged to record highs above USD 5,500 per ounce, extending gains amid rising geopolitical tensions after reports that Trump was considering a new strike on Iran. Safe-haven demand increased, supported by a weaker dollar and U.S. policy uncertainty. Spot gold rose over 1% to a record USD 5,595.41/oz, while April futures hit USD 5,625.89/oz. Silver and platinum also hovered near recent record highs.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed down 7.35% at 8,320.56, driven by MSCI’s review showing no inclusion of Indonesian stocks in the January 2026 rebalancing, due to ongoing issues and debate over the definition of free float (with KSEIclassified corporate holdings deemed non–free float). Most conglomerate stocks with relatively small floats fell to the lower limit (ARB). If yesterday was seen as a stress test for stocks that managed to hold up, the Thohir Group remained relatively resilient thanks to cleaner float structures and commodity exposure. Today, potential buyback announcements from issuers could serve as a positive catalyst to ease market pressure. Any further declines may present opportunities to reaccumulate highly liquid stocks, particularly gold-based commodity names amid record-high gold prices, as well as other commodities, especially metals. For narrative-driven trading in small-liquidity stocks, accumulation may be considered in general insurance stocks and KBMI 1 banks, supported by capital injection catalysts.
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