Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : All three major Wall Street indexes hit fresh record highs on Monday for the second consecutive session. The Dow Jones rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 gained 1.2%, and the Nasdaq surged 1.9%, driven by a rally in the “Magnificent 7” mega-cap tech stocks. The gains were fueled by optimism over strong corporate earnings supported by investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing.
Market sentiment also strengthened amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points during its two-day policy meeting starting Tuesday, lowering the federal funds rate to the 3.75%– 4.00% range. Confidence in a rate cut grew after U.S. inflation data for September came in softer than expected.
Additionally, easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China lifted investor optimism. Officials from both countries reportedly made progress during talks in Kuala Lumpur, discussing a framework agreement that could delay new U.S. tariffs and China’s restrictions on rare earth exports. U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi jinping are scheduled to meet this Thursday to finalize the framework deal.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European markets opened the week on a steady note as investors awaited key central bank meetings, including the Fed’s, and progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations. Germany’s DAX rose 0.3%, France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.2%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.1%.Investors are also awaiting the release of Germany’s Ifo Business Climate data to gauge business confidence in the eurozone’s largest economy. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged as inflation remains close to its 2% target and economic growth appears stable.
•ASIAN MARKET: Asian stocks rallied sharply on Monday, boosted by expectations of a Fed rate cut and easing U.S.-China trade tensions. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 jumped more than 2%, breaking above the 50,000 mark for the first time, while the TOPIX rose 1.7% to a new record high. Optimism grew as newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, known for her dovish stance, was expected to roll out major stimulus measures to support Japan’s fragile economic recovery
In China, the CSI 300 gained 0.7%, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.8%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 1% with the Hang Seng TECH sub-index up 1.2%.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices closed slightly lower on Monday as OPEC+ plans to raise production offset optimism from a potential U.S.-China trade deal. Brent crude fell 0.5% to USD 65.62 per barrel, while WTI slipped 0.3% to USD 61.31 per barrel. Reports indicate that eight OPEC+ members are leaning toward a moderate output increase for December, with Saudi Arabia seeking to regain market share
• INDONESIA: The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) fell sharply by 1.87% to 8,117.15, briefly retesting the 7,900–8,000 support zone. The decline was triggered by a regulatory update on the definition of free float shares, now using KSEI data and classifying corporate institutional ownership as non-free float. As a result, several conglomerate and MSCI constituent stocks faced heavy selling pressure due to potential outflows, even though the rule will only take effect in May 2026.
Conglomerate Stocks Note: For investors still interested in conglomerate shares, short-term or scalping trades are recommended given the unattractive risk-reward setup and volatility caused by corporate-held shares.
Rotation Toward Dividend Plays: Recently, inflows have rotated toward fundamentally strong dividend stocks as dividend yields remain more attractive than bond yields. Despite sectoral challenges—such as credit quality concerns in banking and weaker consumer spending—blue-chip dividend stocks are appealing for buy-on-weakness opportunities. Defensive sectors like consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and tobacco also offer interesting setups.
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