Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET: The main Wall Street indices have retreated from record highs amid concerns over stretched valuations and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next moves. The S&P 500 fell Thursday for the third-straight day as strongerthan-expected economic data dented hopes for deep Federal Reserve rate cuts, pushing Treasury yields higher and keeping a lid on tech stocks. At the closing of market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 173 points, or 0.4%, the S&P 500 index dropped 0.5%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.5%.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday evening announced a slew of new trade tariffs, most notably a 100% levy on the import of pharmaceutical products. The levies also include a 25% tariff on heavy truck imports, a 50% tarif on kitchen and bathroom fittings, and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture. Trump said they will take effect from October 1.
Sentiment has been hit of late by comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who stated earlier in the week that there is “no risk-free path” for the central bank as it weighs risks from both inflation and a cooling labor market. These cautious statements about the path ahead for interest rates following last week’s 25-basis point cut in borrowing costs have created a degree of uncertainty of the number of reductions the Fed will announce this year. With this in mind, investors carefully digested the latest weekly jobless claims data as well as a final reading of second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product, released earlier in the session. First-time applications for unemployment benefits during the week ended on September 20 came in at 218,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the preceding week.
Meanwhile, U.S. gross domestic product, an indicator of growth in the world’s biggest economy, expanded by 3.8% during the April to June period, according to the third and final estimate from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. A prior estimate had suggested that the U.S. economy grew by 3.3% in the second quarter, after contracting by 0.5% in the opening three months of 2025. The initial estimate showed growth of 3.0%.
• EUROPEAN MARKET: The DAX index in Germany dropped 0.6%, the CAC 40 in France slipped 0.4% and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. declined 0.4%. European stocks slipped lower Thursday, trading in a subdued fashion with investors assessing the release of key economic data, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
Investors are assessing French and German consumer confidence reports, along with the latest monetary policy update from the Swiss National Bank. The SNB kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0%, as the central bank attempts to guide the Swiss economy through the shock of being hit with a 39% tariff rate on goods it sends to the U.S. over the summer.
• ASIAN MARKET: Asian shares were subdued on Thursday tracking overnight weakness on Wall Street, as investors stayed cautious ahead of a series of U.S. economic reports that could shape the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Wall Street’s retreat cast a shadow over Asian equities on Thursday, where markets saw choppy moves. Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged 0.3% higher while the broader TOPIX index gained 0.4%. China’s blue chip Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index rose 0.8%, while the Shanghai Composite traded marginally higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index ticked down -0.01%
• COMMODITIES: Oil prices steadied on Thursday after hitting a seven-week high in the previous session as Russia moved to restrict fuel exports until the end of the year, but the gains were limited by new U.S. economic data that tempered optimism around further interest rate cuts. Brent futures settled 11 cents, or 0.16%, higher at USD 69.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures lost 1 cent, or 0.02%, to USD 64.98. Oil received more support after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday the country would introduce a partial ban on diesel exports until the end of the year and extend an existing ban on gasoline exports, following a spate of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries.
• INDONESIA: The JCI closed down -1.06% in the red zone at the 8040.7 level. Pay attention to banking stocks which, if they start reaching oversold support areas, currently have valuations that are quite attractive for buying. For a more aggressive approach, watch the momentum and rotation, as well as conglomerate stocks and those with prospective narratives. If there is a pullback in gold commodity-based stocks, they can be considered as trading options when showing signs of weakness
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