Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : At the close of the NYSE on Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the NASDAQ Composite jumped 0.9%. The rally was driven by technology stocks, as trade tensions between the United States and China eased following confirmation from the White House that President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping will meet on October 30. A statement from White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt calmed the markets after weeks of escalating trade concerns. The two nations had previously exchanged threats to raise tariffs and trade restrictions, rattling global financial markets. Reuters reported that the Trump administration is considering broad restrictions on exports of goods containing U.S. software to China, in response to Beijing’s curbs on rare earth exports. This move could have a wide-ranging impact, particularly on the semiconductor, aerospace, and consumer electronics industries, and risks further deepening the economic tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Nevertheless, investors remained cautious ahead of the delayed release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), postponed due to the over-three-week U.S. government shutdown. The data is seen as critical for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting next week. Markets expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month, with another potential cut in December. With much of the official economic data disrupted by the shutdown, the CPI report has taken on outsized importance as a key gauge for investors to assess the Fed’s next move.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European markets closed higher on Thursday, supported by strength in the energy sector and a busy day of corporate earnings releases. DAX (Germany) rose 0.3%, CAC 40 (France) gained 0.2%, FTSE 100 (U.K.) climbed 0.7%
The gains reflected investor optimism over stable energy prices and the growth outlook for major corporations, despite lingering global uncertainties. The energy sector received a further boost from the sharp rise in oil prices following new U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil companies.
•ASIAN MARKET: Asian markets ended mixed on Thursday, with most major indices posting gains, though Japan’s market declined. Shanghai Composite (China) rose 0.2%. Hang Seng (Hong Kong) gained 0.72% after rebounding strongly in late trading. Nikkei 225 (Japan) dropped 1.4%, extending its decline after hitting record highs earlier in the week.
The drop in Japan’s Nikkei came as investors took profits following a strong rally earlier in the week, which was driven by optimism over the economic policies of new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. However, concerns about the sustainability of the rally and reports that Takaichi is preparing a large-scale stimulus package to curb inflation and support household spending led to renewed caution.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s market fell more than 1% after the central bank kept interest rates unchanged, as widely expected. In addition, reports that the U.S. is considering new restrictions on high-tech exports to China, including laptops, jet engines, and softwarebased products, also weighed on sentiment across the region.
• COMMODITIES :Global crude oil prices surged around 5%, reaching a two-week high, after the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil over Moscow’s continued war in Ukraine. The move prompted major energy firms in China and India to consider reducing imports of Russian oil amid concerns about potential secondary sanctions from Washington
The U.S. Treasury stated that both companies were funding the Kremlin’s war machine and said it is prepared to take further action against Moscow if necessary. This marks a significant shift in Trump’s stance toward Russia, as he had previously avoided direct sanctions during his second term.
The new sanctions could tighten global oil supply, driving prices sharply higher — the biggest daily gain since mid-June. Reuters reported that Chinese state-owned oil companies have halted purchases of seaborne Russian oil, further tightening global supply. The development helped ease fears of a potential oil glut that had been weighing on the energy market in recent weeks
• INDONESIA: The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) closed higher by +1.49%, finishing in the green at 8274.35. The JCI may break out above the 8300 level if conglomerate stocks continue to appreciate. However, investors should remain cautious due to Friday’s typical end-of-week selling pressure, which often brings higher volatility.
Conglomerate Stock Notes: For traders still favoring conglomerate stocks, it is advisable to stick to short-term or scalping trades, given the less attractive risk-reward ratio. There is a chance of sector rotation among conglomerates following the rebound of Haji Isam Group stocks, with potential upside in Hapsoro Group names as well. There may be a rebound opportunity ahead of the MSCI reindexing catalyst, though risks remain elevated at current levels. Close monitoring of support and resistance levels is recommended.
For medium-term strategies and risk mitigation, investors are advised to focus on tactical plays, such as rotating into fundamentally strong sectors — particularly banking, as bank dividend yields currently exceed bond yields (Div. Yield > Bond Yield). Although banks face performance challenges related to loan distribution and asset quality, the sector remains attractive. Consumer and healthcare stocks (such as UNVR and KLBF) also serve as defensive hedges. Meanwhile, tobacco stocks could offer upside potential if Q3-2025 results show improvement, amid expectations of better regulatory transitions in the tobacco sector.
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