Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET: At the close in NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.37% to hit a new all time high, while the S&P 500 index climbed 0.49%, and the NASDAQ Composite index gained 0.72%.
Oracle Corporation stock surged 4.4% to a session high heading into the close on Friday after Bloomberg reported the company is in talks with Meta Platforms for a cloud computing deal worth approximately USD 20 billion.
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s progress on a TikTok deal this week could help bolster talks to allow parent ByteDance to divest the U.S. assets of the short video app, experts said. The move forward, albeit a small one, comes eight months after a legal deadline passed for Chinese ownership of TikTok in the United States to end, and follows lengthy discussions about a sale. Trump said on Truth Social on Friday that he appreciated “the approval of the TikTok Deal” from Xi, after a call between the leaders of the world’s two biggest economies. Xi’s statement did not mention an approval. It said “the Chinese government respects the will of firms and welcomes companies to conduct business negotiations on the basis of market rules to reach a solution consistent with Chinese laws and regulations while balancing interests,” according to the meeting summary in Xinhua state media.
• EUROPEAN MARKET: European stocks edged down on Friday, ending the week marginally lower in the wake of the rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The DAX index in Germany fell 0.1%, the CAC 40 in France was flat and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. declined 0.1%. Helping the tone was the relative optimism from the European Central Bank last week, as it raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.2% from 0.9% last year amid what ECB President Christine Lagarde called “resilience in domestic demand.” The Bank of Spain this week lifted its 2025 growth forecast to 2.6%, while Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, is likely to have a significant boost to its GDP as it unleashes big public spending on infrastructure and defense projects, combined with tax cuts. French political uncertainty remains an issue, but the eurozone appears to have got through the inflation surge linked to Covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine as well as the Trump administration’s volatile tariff policies.
• ASIAN MARKET: Asian stock markets remained upbeat on Friday, tracking overnight record closes on Wall Street, while Japan’s Nikkei reversed early gains after the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady but said it would sell its holdings in ETFs and REITs.
Chinese tech stocks paused their rally on Thursday as investors gauged fragile trade relations with the U.S. ahead of President Donald Trump’s talks on call with his counterpart, Xi Jinping. However, chip stocks extended their rally on Friday over reports that China’s internet regulator has instructed domestic technology firms to stop buying all of Nvidia’s artificial intelligence chips and terminate their existing orders.
• COMMODITIES: Oil prices dropped on Friday as worries about large supplies and declining demand outweighed expectations that the year’s first interest-rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve would trigger more consumption. Brent crude futures settled at USD 66.68 a barrel, down 76 cents or 1.1%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures finished at USD 62.68, down 89 cents or 1.4%. Both benchmarks fell for the week.
• INDONESIA: The JCI closed at an all-time high, rising +0.53% to 8,051.12. Among gold-exposed stocks in Indonesia, BRMS was included in the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF.Keep an eye on banking stocks, especially if they approach oversold support levels, as current valuations look attractive for accumulation. For a more aggressive stance, monitor momentum and rotation plays, as well as conglomerate stocks and those with strong prospective narratives.Two themes worth watching this week are: Finance Minister Purbaya’s statement that cigarette excise taxes are too high, and sentiment around Danantara’s projects (silica sand for solar panels, ethanol, etc.).
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