Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday as investors returned to buying artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks, extending the rebound from the previous session and lifting the broader technology sector. At the close of trading at 4:00 p.m. New York time (21:00 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 183 points, or 0.4%, the S&P 500 gained 0.9%, and the NASDAQ Composite jumped 1.3%.
Market sentiment improved after U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for November came in lower than expected, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates next year. However, analysts cautioned that the November CPI data is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Fed’s rate policy outlook, as it was still influenced by lingering disruptions from the government shutdown in October.
In addition, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Friday that he does not see an urgent need to follow last week’s rate cut with another reduction. In an interview with CNBC, he said he did not have a “sense of urgency” to lower interest rates further, noting that the cuts made so far have positioned the Fed well to curb inflation while supporting a labor market that is beginning to cool.
Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) shares surged on Friday, driven by reports that the software company is part of a U.S. consortium set to acquire TikTok’s U.S. operations. Oracle’s rally was followed by other AI-related stocks, with CoreWeave Inc (NASDAQ: CRWV) among the biggest gainers. The cloud infrastructure company also announced that it has joined efforts by the U.S. Department of Energy to advance research and innovation in the United States.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks closed mostly in positive territory on Friday, posting solid weekly performance despite a number of key central bank policy meetings. Germany’s DAX index rose 0.4%, France’s CAC 40 was flat, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.6%. On a weekly basis, the DAX gained around 0.5%, while the CAC 40 and FTSE 100 rose by more than 1% and 2%, respectively.
The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2%, in line with market expectations, but upgraded its economic growth outlook for the eurozone. The ECB now expects growth to reach up to 1.4% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. Nevertheless, German consumer sentiment is expected to weaken significantly heading into 2026, according to data released earlier on Friday.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates on Thursday, as widely anticipated. However, uncertainty still surrounds the U.K. central bank’s next policy move, after several BoE policymakers highlighted concerns over persistently high wage growth expectations and structural inflation pressures. This comes amid a drop in retail sales in November, which reflected weak consumer confidence.
• ASIAN MARKET: Most Asian stock markets rose on Friday, supported by a rebound in technology shares after sharp losses over the past week. Meanwhile, markets showed a relatively muted reaction to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) rate hike, which was in line with expectations. Japanese equities pared some of their gains following the BOJ decision but still outperformed other Asian markets on the day. However, the Nikkei 225, along with most major Asian indices, continued to post notable weekly losses.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 1%, trimming earlier gains slightly but still leading advances across the region. The BOJ raised interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, and said it still has room to hike rates further if economic and inflation conditions move in line with its forecasts. The rate hike had been widely anticipated, given that Japanese inflation has continued to rise throughout the year, while the yen has remained near multi-year lows.
Consumer price index (CPI) data released earlier on Friday showed that Japanese inflation remained sticky and above the BOJ’s 2% annual target in November, further reinforcing market expectations of continued monetary tightening.
• COMMODITIES: In the commodities market, Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices could rise by around 14% to reach USD 4,900 per ounce by December 2026 under its base-case scenario. This projection is supported by strong structural demand from global central banks and tailwinds from the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle. Goldman Sachs continues to recommend a long position in gold, while noting upside risks if asset diversification increasingly expands to non-traditional investors. Meanwhile, copper prices are expected to move in a consolidation phase throughout 2026, averaging USD 11,400 per metric ton, amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy, which is expected to gain clarity only by mid-2026.
• INDONESIA : The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) closed slightly lower, down 0.10% at 8,609.6, with technical indicators showing negative RSI divergence, signaling the need to be cautious about the potential for further correction. Currently, the 8,700–8,750 range serves as near-term resistance, while the main support level is at 8,500, followed by secondary support in the 8,300–8,350 range. Under these conditions, the recommended strategy is to adopt a wait-and-see approach, while anticipating pullback opportunities if the IHSG fails to hold its ground and moves back toward support levels.
For now, market rotation remains concentrated in relatively stable conglomerate stocks that are still trading above their 20-day moving averages (MA20), making them attractive for short-term trading strategies. Limited rotation into classic fundamentally strong stocks remains possible, especially if price adjustments occur amid market volatility. Investors are advised to closely monitor each position using individual trailing stops, while paying attention to technical levels, index movements, and domestic catalysts and sentiment, in order to capture selective and measured trading opportunities.
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