Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : In the regular session, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.1% each, while the NASDAQ Composite added 1.4%, led by a rally in major technology stocks such as Apple and Nvdia. The S&P 500 jumped Monday as investors looked ahead to week of major quarterly earnings reports and hopes grew for the the end of U.S. shutdown as well as the prospect of a U.S.-China trade deal.
Sentiment received a boost after President Donald Trump suggested that his proposed tripledigit tariffs on China were not sustainable, raising hopes that trade tensions between the two largest economies in the world could be smoothed over. Trump also confirmed that a meeting later this month with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in South Korea will go ahead, adding in a television interview that the U.S. is “going to be fine with China.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later said he expects to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in a bid to prevent an escalation of the levies. Chinese state news sources noted that He and Bessent held “constructive discussions” and had agreed to conduct fresh trade discussions as soon as possible.
Investors welcomed signs of resilience in the financial sector, while upbeat remarks from a White House adviser helped fuel hopes that Washington’s partial shutdown could soon be resolved.
Bank shares gained after recent weakness among smaller lenders eased. Zions Bancorporation reported stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings, helping to calm nerves around the health of U.S. regional banks. Last week, Zions had flagged a USD 50 million charge-off linked to two loans under fraud investigation and increased its reserves for credit losses. Zions shares rose about 3% in after-hours trading following the results, after jumping more than 5% in the regular session.
Still, traders remain cautious ahead of delayed economic releases, including consumer price index data due Friday, which had been stalled by the shutdown.
• EUROPEAN MARKET: European stocks rose Monday, starting the new week on a positive note, boosted by gains in Asia and ahead of the release of a barrage of corporate earnings. The DAX index in Germany surged 1.9%, the CAC 40 in France gained 0.4% and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. rose 0.5%
German producer prices fell 0.1% on the month in September, an annual drop of 1.7%, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain extremely limited in the eurozone’s largest economy
Kering will be in the spotlight Monday after the luxury giant announced over the weekend that it will sell its beauty business to L’Oreal for EUR 4 billion (USD 4.66 billion), as it seeks to trim debt and return focus to its core fashion business under new CEO Luca de Meo.
•ASIAN MARKET: Most Asian stocks advanced on Monday, with Japanese shares hitting record highs amid renewed bets that fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi will secure the premiership, while Chinese markets took support from mildly positive economic growth data.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged nearly 3% to a record high of over 49,000 points, while the TOPIX jumped over 2% and remained close to record highs. A host of local media reports said that Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party had secured enough backing from its allies to form a coalition government with Takaichi as prime minister. Takaichi is viewed as a fiscal dove, and is broadly expected to increase government spending and oppose more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Her election as the leader of the LDP in late-September had sparked a stellar rally in Japanese markets, on bets of more accommodative conditions under her premiership.
China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes rose 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively, extending early gains on stronger-than-expected third quarter gross domestic product data. China’s economy grew slightly more than expected in the third quarter of 2025, but at its slowest pace in a year amid persistent headwinds from rampant disinflation and U.S. trade tensions. Gross domestic product grew 4.8% year-on-year in the three months to Sept. 30, government data showed on Monday. The print was slightly above expectations of 4.7% but slowed from the 5.2% rise seen in the prior quarter. Year-on-year GDP growth was also at its slowest since the third quarter of 2024.
• COMMODITIES :Oil prices settled at their lowest since early May on Monday as investors weighed a potential global glut, with U.S.-China trade tensions adding to concerns about an economic slowdown and weaker energy demand. Brent crude futures settled down 28 cents, or 0.46%, at USD 61.01 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled down 2 cents, or 0.03%, to USD 57.52. Both benchmarks fell more than USD 1 earlier in the session, and both closed at their weakest levels since early May. Oil traders’ concerns have shifted from undersupply to over-supply, the futures contract structure of the global benchmark Brent show.
• INDONESIA: The JCI closed sharply higher again by +2.19% to the green zone at 8088.98, successfully breaking the psychological level of 8000.
Most conglomerate stocks have already broken below their 20-day moving average (MA20), and it is advised to reduce position weightings. If you still favor conglomerate stocks, it’s better to focus on fast or scalping trades due to the less attractive risk–reward ratio. There’s still a chance for a short-term rebound ahead of the MSCI indexing catalyst, although risks remain elevated in the current market condition.
A tactical play is recommended by observing sector rotation toward fundamentally strong and classic stocks, such as banking, given that bank dividend yields are currently more attractive than bond yields (Bank Div. Yield > Bond Yield) — despite challenges in bank performance (concerns over loan disbursement and asset quality). Consumer and healthcare stocks (e.g., UNVR, KLBF) can also serve as defensive hedging options.
The BBCA rally was driven by inflow catalysts, solid performance growth, and a buyback plan at a maximum price of IDR 9,200 per share with a total allocation of up to IDR 5 trillion. Meanwhile, other state-owned banks (Himbara) are still awaiting the release of Q3 2025 performance results
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