Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : Wall Street was closed on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, while markets remained cautious ahead of a heavy slate of major corporate earnings releases this week, with trading volumes staying relatively thin.
President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. would impose trade tariffs of up to 25% on several European countries unless an agreement over Greenland is reached. Tariffs are set to start at 10% in early February and could rise to 25% by July if negotiations fail. The threat drew sharp criticism from European leaders, who rejected U.S. claims over the Danish territory and began preparing potential economic countermeasures.
Risk assets came under pressure amid rising geopolitical uncertainty. Investors are now focused on whether Trump will actually implement the tariffs or retreat at the last minute, as he has often done previously, while markets also remain wary of potential U.S. military action, especially following Washington’s intervention in Venezuela earlier this year.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European equities posted their largest daily decline in two months on Monday, rattled by President Donald Trump’s threat to impose additional tariffs on eight European countries unless the U.S. is allowed to purchase Greenland. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 1.2%, while export-heavy markets such as Germany and France each declined by more than 1.3%
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian equities fell on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump reignited global trade tariff concerns by imposing duties on several European nations over the Greenland issue.
Losses in Chinese stocks were relatively limited after fourth-quarter GDP data came in stronger than expected. China’s economy also met Beijing’s annual growth target of 5% in 2025. Meanwhile, South Korean equities outperformed the region and hit record highs, driven by a surge in Hyundai shares as investors welcomed the company’s advances in artificial intelligence and robotics.
China’s Shanghai-Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes traded in a narrow range after official data showed quarterly GDP growth slightly above expectations in December. China’s GDP grew 4.5% year-on-year in the quarter, in line with forecasts, bringing full-year 2025 growth to 5%. The performance was largely supported by resilient exports, bolstered by strong demand outside the U.S., keeping the manufacturing sector robust.
Domestic consumption was also supported by continued stimulus measures from Beijing aimed at restoring post-COVID confidence. However, several December indicators still pointed to gaps in China’s economic recovery.
• COMMODITIES : Gold prices surged to all-time highs on Monday, approaching USD 4,700 per ounce, driven by increased safe-haven demand after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on several European nations related to his push to acquire Greenland.
Silver prices jumped more than 5%, hitting a new record high of USD 94.35 per ounce. The rally was supported not only by safe-haven demand but also by silver’s dual role as an industrial metal. Among industrial metals, copper prices advanced after GDP data from top importer China showed the economy met its 5% growth target for 2025. Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 0.8% to USD 12,898 per ton. Copper was also buoyed by a rally in physical assets since late 2025, as investors bet that rising global data center spending will boost demand.
Chinese data showing slightly stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the December quarter reinforced optimism that the Chinese economy remains resilient, a positive signal for global copper demand.
Meanwhile, oil prices were mostly steady on Monday after civil unrest in Iran subsided, reducing the likelihood of a U.S. attack that could disrupt supplies from the major producer. Market attention also remained focused on tensions surrounding Greenland. Brent crude edged up one cent (0.02%) to USD 64.14 per barrel, while February WTI was flat at USD 59.44 per barrel.
• INDONESIA : The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) closed higher and held above its psychological level, breaking to a new all-time high above 9,000, ending at 9,133.87. If conglomerate stocks and existing uptrend holdings remain firm above the 20-day moving average (MA20), this level can be used as a trailing stop reference.
For portfolios exposed to nickel, KBMI I banks, and general insurance, investors are advised to remain cautious and consistently apply trailing stops due to elevated volatility. Meanwhile, Big Four banks (KBMI IV) are starting to show more attractive technical setups, particularly if they manage to break above their nearest resistance levels.
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