Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed lower on Monday. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq declined 0.4%, and the Dow Jones plunged 427 points (-0.9%). The decline occurred at the start of the final trading month of the year amid cautious market sentiment ahead of expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
Even so, on a monthly basis the S&P 500 and Dow still recorded a positive November, while the Nasdaq fell 1.51% due to concerns over lofty technology stock valuations and heavy, often debt-fueled, spending on artificial intelligence.
The probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting has now surged to 88%. Dovish signals from Fed officials have strengthened these expectations, although economic data remains limited due to the recent temporary U.S. government shutdown.
This week, markets are awaiting the release of key U.S. data such as manufacturing and services activity, consumer sentiment, private payrolls, as well as retail sector performance following the surge in online spending during Black Friday.
Markets are also closely watching the next candidate for Fed Chair, which is widely rumored to be Kevin Hassett. If a more dovish figure replaces Jerome Powell next year, the direction of interest rate policy could become looser and potentially support equities, particularly in the retail and growth sectors.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks edged slightly lower on Monday, as signs of fading risk appetite emerged at the start of the final trading month of the year. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index slipped 0.2% to 575.28. Germany’s DAX fell 1%, France’s CAC 40 weakened 0.3%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined 0.2%.A series of economic data releases from the region will be in focus this week, as investors attempt to gauge the direction of the European economy toward 2026. Indicators of Eurozone manufacturing sector activity fell back into contraction territory in November, while similar indicators in major European economies such as Germany and France also contracted.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian markets moved in a narrow range. China remains overshadowed by a slowdown, as the private-sector manufacturing PMI returned to contraction, extending an eight-month weakening trend. Nevertheless, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.7% and the Hang Seng advanced 0.7%.Japan was the weakest performer. The Nikkei 225 index slumped nearly 2% as the yen strengthened and Japanese government bond yields climbed, reflecting rising expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike. This was further supported by solid Tokyo inflation data and statements from the BOJ Governor regarding the possibility of discussing a rate hike in December.
• COMMODITIES: Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday following drone attacks by Ukraine, the closure of Venezuelan airspace by the United States, and OPEC’s decision to keep production levels unchanged in the first quarter of 2026. Brent crude futures closed at USD 63.17 per barrel, up 79 cents or 1.27%. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at USD 59.32 per barrel, up 77 cents or 1.32%. Concerns over a potential conflict between the United States and Venezuela remain far behind the market’s main focus on the war in Ukraine.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed in positive territory, gaining +0.47% to 8,548.79, where the current support level is above the 8,400–8,450 area as the next support, with the nearest resistance at 8,580–8,620, and medium-term resistance at the psychological level of 9,000.
Heading into December, market rotation appears to be centering once again on conglomerate stocks, including the Hapsoro and Salim-Bakrie groups, as well as the fast-internet ecosystem. It is advised to continue closely monitoring each stock with individual trailing stops while paying attention to index levels and reactions when trading conglomerate stocks, along with domestic catalysts and sentiment.
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