Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, starting April on a positive note after a recovery rally helped Wall Street end March with improved sentiment. Hopes of Middle East de-escalation increased after President Donald Trump said Iran’s new regime had requested a ceasefire. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 6,573.89; the NASDAQ gained 1.2% to 21,840.95; and the Dow Jones increased 0.5% to 46,565.86.
Trump stated that Iran had asked for a ceasefire, but the U.S. would consider it only when the Strait of Hormuz is open and secure. If confirmed, this would mark a significant step toward de-escalation, although uncertainty remains. The Strait of Hormuz—responsible for about 20% of global oil and gas supply—has remained disrupted since the conflict, pushing oil prices higher. Trump also said negotiations were progressing well (a claim disputed by Tehran), although Iran acknowledged ongoing communication and signaled willingness to end the war if guaranteed against future attacks.
On the economic front, February retail sales rose 0.6% MoM to USD 738.4 billion (above the 0.4% expectation and rebounding from -0.2% in January). ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 52.7 in March, marking the 17th consecutive month of economic expansion.
• EUROPEAN MARKET :European stocks advanced on Wednesday, while oil prices briefly declined after Trump stated that the U.S. would exit the Iran war within two to three weeks. The pan-European Stoxx 600 surged 2.5%, Germany’s DAX rose 2.6%, France’s CAC 40 gained 2.1%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 increased 1.8%.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks rallied on Wednesday following Trump’s signal of a potential end to the Iran war in the coming weeks, along with dip-buying after sharp losses in March. Positive momentum from Wall Street also supported the region.
South Korea led gains, with the KOSPI surging over 8% after previously dropping around 19% in March. Shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix jumped up to ~10%, tracking a rebound in memory chip stocks. Data also supported sentiment, with March exports rising 48.3% and manufacturing activity continuing to expand.
Other Asian markets also posted strong gains: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 4.7% and TOPIX gained 4.4%. In China, the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite rose about 1.6% despite weaker-than-expected PMI data. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 2%, driven by a rebound in tech stocks; Zhipu AI (Knowledge Atlas) surged up to 35% after its 2025 revenue doubled.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices extended losses in Asian trading on Thursday, pressured by easing geopolitical tensions and rising U.S. inventories, while investors awaited further statements from Trump regarding the Iran conflict.
As of 20:25 ET (00:25 GMT), Brent for June fell 1.2% to USD 99.92 per barrel, while WTI declined 1.7% to USD 98.40 per barrel. Both benchmarks also closed lower in the previous session as traders unwound risk premiums tied to Middle East supply disruptions. Conflicting signals regarding ceasefire talks added to market volatility.
Trump claimed Iran’s “new regime president” had requested a ceasefire, but Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied the claim. On the supply side, U.S. data added pressure, with the Energy Information Administration reporting a ~5.5 million barrel increase in crude inventories for the week ending March 27, exceeding expectations.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed higher in the green, up 1.93% at 7,184.4, with the next resistance level in the 7,200–7,300 range. In the current environment, it is more prudent to focus on short-term scalping strategies given elevated global volatility, while rising oil prices remain a negative sentiment for the index despite recent corrections as tensions ease. Although U.S.–Iran tensions appear to be softening, caution is still warranted as the market awaits clarity on free float policies and MSCI overhang issues before testing the next resistance level.
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