Today’s Outlook:

• Stocks rallied Friday, clawing back some of the steep losses seen over the week, as investors got a reprieve from tariff-related headlines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 674.62 points, or 1.65%, to close at 41,488.19. The S&P 500 climbed 2.13% to end at 5,638.94, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.61% to settle at 17,754.09. It was the best day in 2025 for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Stocks bounced after a lack of new headlines out of the White House related to tariffs, easing concerns around escalating tensions for the time being. Investors might also be scooping up shares after a stock market pullback on Thursday. A decline of more than 1% Thursday pulled the S&P 500 into a correction – a decline of at least 10% from the record close notched just 16 days ago. The session’s sell-off dragged the Nasdaq further into correction, and it brought the small-cap Russell 2000 closer to a bear market, or a drawdown of 20% from its high. That marked another milestone in the pullback that has gripped investors over the past three weeks as President Donald Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff policy drove up uncertainty and market volatility.

• MARKET SENTIMENT : We start off the week with US Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales in February. Both data sets declined monthly in January. Domestically, Indonesia’s Trade Balance will also be in focus in the beginning of the week with Exports anticipated to increase 9.1% YoY and Imports stagnating at 0.6% YoY. Trade Balance may decrease by USD 1 bn to USD 2.45 bn (vs USD 3.45 in Jan-2025).

• FIXED INCOME & CURRENCY : U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors digested new consumer sentiment data that points to greater inflation expectations. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was 4 basis points higher at 4.318%. The 2-year Treasury yield was up 7 basis points at 4.023%. One basis point is equal to 0.01% and yields move inversely to prices. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.1% to 103.72. It is on track for the second straight week of losses.

• EUROPE : The regional Stoxx 600 index closed 1.14% higher, with the German DAX index up by 1.86%. European markets closed higher on Friday after German lawmakers reportedly came closer to agreeing on reforming the country’s so-called debt brake rule. Multiple media reports said Friday that Germany’s likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz had won support from the Greens party to hike public borrowing to allow an increase in defense spending. The motion, which requires a change to the German constitution, needs backing from two-thirds of the lawmakers elected to the country’s parliament. The Stoxx 600 is nonetheless heading for a second straight weekly loss as regional investors monitor tumultuous developments on transatlantic trade policies.

– The euro rose 0.3% to $1.082. The euro gained broadly on Friday after German parties agreed on a fiscal deal that could boost defence spending and revive growth in Europe’s largest economy. The dollar weakened against the euro but rose against the Swiss franc and the yen, underpinned by the likelihood the U.S. government will avert a shutdown over the weekend, extending gains as data showed inflation expectations picked up, suggesting the Federal Reserve will likely be patient cutting interest rates.

• ASIA : Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose on Friday despite a plunge in all three benchmarks in the U.S. over the previous session amid concern about President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. Mainland China’s CSI 300 led gains in Asia, rising 2.43% to end the day at a three-month high of 4,006.56. This follows stronger movements in the healthcare, consumer cyclicals and non-cyclicals sectors. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 2.12% to end the day at 23,959.98. Pharmaceuticals company WuXi Biologics was the top mover in the index, gaining 13.95%. Other top performing stocks include BYD which surged 6.04%, Meituan which rose 5.71% and Ping An Insurance which was up 5.59%. In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 ended the day 0.72% higher at 37,053.10, while the broader Topix index rose 0.65% to 2,715.85.  South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.28% to close at 2,566.36 while the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 1.59% to 734.26. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended the trading day 0.52% higher at 7,789.70. Indian markets were closed for a public holiday. The moves in Asia-Pacific come after another escalation in the developing trade war, with Trump threatening to enact 200% tariffs on all alcoholic products coming from the European Union in retaliation for the bloc’s 50% tariff on whiskey. Trump on Thursday said, “I’m not going to bend at all” regarding tariffs.

– Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.6% to 148.63 and was up this week. Japanese companies agreed to raise wages by 5.46% this year, topping both last year’s preliminary and final figures and likely marking the highest pay hike in 34 years. The data is one important input into the Bank of Japan’s decision making. Economists and markets see the central bank standing pat at its meeting next week as policymakers gauge global risks.

• COMMODITIES : OIL prices rebounded by 1% on Friday to end the week nearly unchanged as investors weighed the diminishing prospects of a quick end to the Ukraine war that could bring back more Russian energy supplies to Western markets. Brent crude futures settled 70 cents, or 1%, higher at $70.58 a barrel, after falling 1.5% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $67.18 a barrel, up 63 cents, or 1%, after losing 1.7% on Thursday. Both benchmarks ended the week little changed from last Friday, when Brent settled at $70.36 and WTI at $67.04.

• USD/IDR is currently within a long-term uptrend channel. However, it has recently formed a negative RSI divergence while also failing to breakout of its nearest resistance at 16,468. NHKSI Research sees this Wednesday (19-Mar) as a pivotal moment for the Rupiah as Bank Indonesia announces its decision for the 7DRRR (Currently: 5.75%).

• JCI declined 1.98% to 6515. It broke down below its soft support at 6531. We this is as a minor correction after rebounding from the 6245 major support line, as RSI formed a positive divergence signalling a strong upward swing. The long-term target for JCI will be for it to return back to 6952. While the Indonesian rupiah continues its depreciation trend (now at 16,344), this week may be a pivotal as Bank Indonesia chooses to either hold or to cut for Mar-2025 which will show the central bank’s changing priorities in the Prabowo administration.

Company News

• SMRA: Surging 80 Percent, SMRA’s 2024 Profit Touches Rp1.37 Trillion
• FAPA: Will Return Shareholders’ Funds IDR 314 per Share
• CLEO: CLEO Controller to Hold 40 Million Treasury Shares at Discounted Price

Domestic & Global News
38 Factories Close and Mass Layoffs in the First 3 Months of 2025
US Secretary of State Ready to Negotiate New Trade Deals After Tariffs Take Effect

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