Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed lower on Friday, with pressure mainly coming from technology stocks. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 6,827.41, the NASDAQ Composite slid 1.7% to 23,195.17, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined a more modest 0.5% to 48,458.05. Despite the daily losses, weekly declines were relatively contained, supported by non-technology sectors, as markets digested the Federal Reserve’s more dovish-leaning commentary.
Market focus this week is on the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for November, which is expected to be a key determinant for the future path of interest rates. Further signs of easing inflation could strengthen expectations for additional rate cuts by the Fed. Last week, the U.S. central bank cut interest rates in line with expectations and reiterated that future policy decisions will remain highly data-dependent. In addition, the Fed announced plans to purchase around USD 40 billion per month of short-dated U.S. Treasuries to support market liquidity, reinforcing expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy stance heading into 2026.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European equities closed lower on Friday, despite opening in positive territory earlier in the session. The decline was driven by a global rotation out of technology stocks into value names, amid concerns that artificial intelligence (AI) valuations have become increasingly stretched. Germany’s DAX fell 0.3%, France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.2%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined 0.6%.
Economic data showed the U.K. economy remained in contraction, with October GDP falling 0.1%, matching the previous month’s decline and undershooting growth expectations. The Bank of England is set to hold its final policy meeting of the year next week and is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, in line with easing inflation trends. In Germany, November inflation rose to 2.6%, confirming preliminary data, while eurozone inflation overall remains broadly in line with the ECB’s medium-term target of around 2%. The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian equity markets advanced on Friday, supported by a rebound in technology stocks following earlier pressure linked to concerns over the artificial intelligence trade after Oracle’s performance. However, Chinese equities lagged regional peers as domestic chipmaking stocks continued to weaken.
Pressure on China’s semiconductor sector intensified amid rising competition concerns, after NVIDIA was seen likely to resume selling more advanced AI chips to the Chinese market. Shares of Moore Threads, viewed as a potential domestic competitor to NVIDIA, plunged by as much as 19%. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 1.4% and South Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.0%, driven by gains in technology and industrial stocks. Meanwhile, China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite pared earlier losses but still underperformed, weighed down by weak domestic economic sentiment, disappointing inflation data, and ongoing diplomatic tensions between China and Japan over Taiwan-related issues.
• COMMODITIES: Global oil prices closed lower on Friday and posted weekly losses of around 4%. The decline was driven by concerns over a global supply glut and optimism surrounding a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which could increase Russian oil supply to global markets. Brent crude settled 16 cents lower at USD 61.12 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 16 cents to USD 57.44 per barrel.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed higher by 0.5% at 8,660.5. The index is now building a new short-term support above the 8,600 level, with near-term resistance seen at 8,700–8,750 and medium-term resistance at the psychological 9,000 level.
However, given the potential formation of an RSI negative divergence on the JCI, investors should remain prepared for a possible pullback toward the 8,500 support area.
In December, market rotation has shifted back toward conglomerate stocks, including groups such as Hapsoro, Salim-Bakrie, as well as the fast internet ecosystem. For today, several stocks within the fast internet ecosystem have emerged from trading suspension, opening opportunities for partial fund flows into these names.
Investors are advised to closely monitor each stock with appropriate trailing stops, while paying attention to index levels and market responses when trading conglomerate stocks, alongside domestic catalysts and sentiment to capture short-term trading opportunities.
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