Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 797 points, or 1.7%, the S&P 500 index dropped 1.6%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite underperformed, falling 2.3%. The S&P 500 closed sharply Thursday as an ongoing rotation out of big tech and waning odds of a December rate cut weighed on sentiment even with the ending of the longest ever U.S. government shutdown.
Trump administration officials have warned that employment and inflation for October might never be published because of the shutdown. If so, this could leave Federal Reserve officials in particular without key pieces of data before their next interest rate decision in December.
Odds on a December rate cut fell below 50% following a flurry of Fed speak stoking caution on further rate cuts amid concerns about the lack of economic data owing to the government shutdown. Boston Fed President Susan Collins, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee said she would be “hesitant to ease policy further, especially given the limited information on inflation due to the government shutdown.” The echoed similar remarks by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari who said the economic outlook is mixed as inflation continues to run higher and some sectors of the economic “look like they’re doing great.” “We think that it is possible that Powell is forced into a compromise by which the Fed either. stays on hold in December, or if it does cut, is obligated subsequently to signal that the rate cutting cycle may be over,” Macquarie said in a note.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : The DAX index in Germany dropped 1.4% and the CAC 40 in France fell 0.1%, while the FTSE 100 in the U.K. closed down 1.1%. European stocks closed lower on Thursday, despite being boosted earlier in the session by the successful signing of a bill ending the longest U.S. government shutdown on record, while the U.K. economy barely grew in the third quarter
Data released earlier Thursday showed that Britain’s economy barely expanded in the third quarter, underlining the backdrop of slow growth as finance minister Rachel Reeves prepares her budget, due for release later this month. The economy grew 0.1% in the third quarter of 2025, the Office for National Statistics said, slowing from growth of 0.3% in the second quarter. In September alone, the economy contracted by 0.1%.
• ASIAN MARKET : Japan’s Nikkei 225 also traded up +0.4% on this trend, while the TOPIX, which has a greater weightage of non-tech stocks, rose 0.8%. Japanese producer inflation read slightly higher than expected for October, keeping markets on edge over hawkish signals for the Bank of Japan. Mainland Chinese indexes, which also have relatively lower tech weightages, advanced on Thursday, with the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 adding 0.7%, while the Shanghai Composite rose 0.3%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index up 0.6% on Thursday. Focus was chiefly on upcoming earnings from some of China’s biggest internet and technology firms, which are due on Thursday and Friday.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices held largely steady on Thursday after declining around 4% in the previous session as investors weighed concerns about global oversupply with looming sanctions against Russia’s Lukoil. Brent crude futures rose 30 cents, or 0.5%, to USD 63.01 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased 20 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 58.69 a barrel, after a decline of 4.2% on Wednesday. The U.S. has hit Lukoil with sanctions as part of its efforts to bring the Kremlin to peace talks over Ukraine. The sanctions prohibit transactions with the Russian company after November 21.Price gains were held back as a report from the Energy Information Administration showed a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude stocks, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell less than expected last week.
• INDONESIA : JCI closed slightly lower at -0.2% into the red zone at the level of 8372.0, where the IHSG is still consolidating in the 8200 to 8400 area as its resistance as well as its ATH resistance. Despite the ATH resistance on the IHSG, still pay attention to the potential for a correction and pullback due to the indicators appearing, namely RSI negative divergence, and if the IHSG experiences a pullback, the potential to test the 8000–8200 support still exists. Pay attention to the potential for sector / conglomerate rotation amid the consolidation phase in the 8200–8400 range before reaching its ATH again. Bakrie Group stocks, especially BUMI, are once again absorbing liquidity in the market, entering the top gainer list. With these conditions, scalping opportunities can still be utilized to trade within that universe, such as DEWA. Since today is the end of the weekly trading period, continue to monitor each chosen stock with its respective trailing stop.
Rotation to Old-Dividend Player and Back To Consumer: We continue to recommend allocating a portion for shifting into stocks that have dividend yield cushions above bonds as well as consumer goods stocks as defensive plays amid uncertain catalyst issues to protect the portfolio, taking advantage of the attractive valuation–yield.
Download Full Report HERE.
