Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : At the closing of NYSE, Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 378 points, or 0.8%, the S&P 500 index gained 1.5%, and the NASDAQ Composite soared 2.3%. The S&P 500 jumped Monday, led by tech after the Senate voted in favor of a key step towards ending the longest ever government shutdown in the country’s history. The positive start to the week comes as Wall Street attempts to recover from steep losses over the past week, especially in the technology sector. Currently traders are pricing in just over a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut next month, CME Fedwatch showed.
The Senate voted 60-40 on Sunday in a test vote to move towards passing legislation to fund the government until at least January 30, 2026. This followed eight Democrat senators offering their support to a Republican offer to hold a later vote on extending certain healthcare subsidies, as well as assurances that federal workers fired during the shutdown will be brought back. The Senate will still need to hold a final vote on the spending bill, after which it will need to be considered by the House of Representatives before being signed into law by President Donald Trump.
The prospect of a potential breakthrough in Congress encouraged investors, as the country’s longest ever government shutdown, which entered its 40th day on Sunday, has resulted in disruptions across the country, especially in key sectors such as air travel. Airlines canceled more than 1,500 U.S. flights on Monday, the fourth consecutive day cancellations have topped 1,000 as government flight cuts and air traffic staffing absences continue to wreak havoc with aviation.
Investors also fretted over the shutdown’s impact on gross domestic product and employment, with U.S. consumer sentiment weakening to the lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years in early November. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said in an interview that the U.S. economy could contract in the fourth quarter if the shutdown dragged on. The end of the shutdown would renew the release of economic data including the monthly jobs report that have so been delayed.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : The DAX index in Germany gained 1.8%, the CAC 40 in France climbed 1.3% and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. rose 1.1%. European stocks surged higher Monday, following the global lead after the U.S. Senate voted in favor of a key step towards ending the country’s longest ever government shutdown
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks were a mixed bag on Monday, with Japanese and South Korean markets leading gains on a rebound in technology shares, while China lagged even as data showed a mild improvement in local inflation
Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI were the best performers for the day, rising 1.3% and 2.8%, respectively. Gains in tech also helped Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rise 1.6%. The indexes were aided chiefly by a rebound in technology shares, as investors bought the dip in the sector following deep losses last week.
Data released over the weekend showed China’s consumer price index inflation rose more than expected in October, aided by the Golden Week holiday. The print showed Chinese consumer inflation rising for the first time since June, drumming up hopes for a bigger pick-up in inflation. Producer price index inflation also shrank slightly less than expected. But the print also logged its 37th consecutive month in red. Despite the improvement in inflation, October’s data still showed China grappling with a persistent deflationary trend, as consumer spending remained weak after the Golden Week holiday.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices settled higher on Monday as analysts focused on potential fuel supply disruptions from fresh U.S. sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, although predictions of a crude supply surplus kept gains in check. Brent crude futures rose 43 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at USD 64.06 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced 38 cents, or 0.6%, to close at USD 60.13 a barrel.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed slightly lower, down -0.04% into negative territory at 8,391.24, failing to hold above the 8,400 resistance level. Despite the all-timehigh resistance area, investors should remain alert to potential corrections and pullbacks, as indicated by the emergence of RSI negative divergence. Should a pullback occur, the index still has room to retest the 8,000–8,200 support zone.
Rotation to Old-Dividend Players and Back to Consumer: We continue to recommend allocating a portion of the portfolio toward stocks offering dividend yields above government bond yields, as well as consumer goods names as defensive picks amid ongoing uncertainty in market catalysts. The strategy aims to protect portfolios while taking advantage of attractive valuation and yield opportunities.
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