Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : At the NYSE close, the Dow Jones rose 497 points (1.1%), the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and the Nasdaq added 0.3%. The S&P 500 ended higher after the Federal Reserve delivered its third rate cut of the year, although it signaled that further cuts would be more difficult, adding uncertainty to the policy outlook.
The Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 3.5%–3.75%. Powell said the three cuts this year have placed rates within a “range that could be considered neutral,” and future decisions will depend entirely on incoming economic data. Divisions inside the Fed are becoming more visible, with three dissents—two preferring to pause and one calling for a 50 bps cut.
Meanwhile, according to the Wall Street Journal, President Donald Trump is set to begin the final round of interviews for the next Fed Chair. He is scheduled to interview former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, along with other candidates such as Kevin Hassett, who many reports say is the frontrunner to replace Powell when his term ends next year.
Markets are also awaiting earnings from Oracle and Adobe. Oracle has surged in prominence this year thanks to its partnership with OpenAI, becoming a key provider of computing power for AI workloads.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks traded muted ahead of the Fed decision. Germany’s DAX slipped 0.2%, France’s CAC 40 fell 0.4%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.1%.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian markets declined as investors stayed cautious ahead of the Fed decision, while Chinese equities came under pressure due to persistent deflation signals. Japan–China geopolitical tensions added to the drag, following U.S. criticism of Beijing for aiming radar at Japanese military aircraft during training.
The Shanghai Composite dropped 0.2%, while the Hang Seng rose 0.4%. China’s CPI increased year-on-year in November but fell month-onmonth; PPI contracted for the 38th consecutive month, confirming that deflation remains a major overhang on the economy. Despite the Politburo pledging more fiscal stimulus, markets have yet to see meaningful support.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.1%. Japan’s PPI remained elevated, fueling speculation that the BOJ might raise interest rates in its December meeting. Geopolitical strains between Japan and China, particularly around Taiwan, continued to weigh on sentiment.
• COMMODITIES: Oil prices closed higher after the U.S. seized an oil tanker near Venezuela, raising concerns over short-term supply. Brent rose 0.4% to USD 62.21 per barrel, while WTI gained 0.4% to USD 58.46. U.S. officials did not disclose the tanker’s identity or specific details of the operation.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed higher, up 0.5% at 8,700.9. The index currently gains an additional short-term support above the 8,600 area, with short-term resistance at 8,700–8,750 and medium-term resistance at the psychological level of 9,000
However, with signs of a potential RSI negative divergence emerging on the JCI, caution is advised — a pullback toward the 8,500 support level remains possible.For December, market rotation continues to center on conglomerate stocks — including Hapsoro, Salim–Bakrie, and the fastinternet ecosystem. Today, several stocks in the fast-internet / “internet rakyat” ecosystem are being lifted from suspension, creating potential flow rotation toward those names.
Investors are advised to closely monitor each position with disciplined trailing stops, while tracking index levels and domestic catalysts/sentiment to capture trading opportunities in conglomerate-related stocks.
Download full report HERE.
