Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street stocks managed to rebound on Monday after earlier coming under heavy pressure. The rebound in the final hour came after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S.–Israel war against Iran could be nearing its end and had progressed “far beyond” his initial estimate of four to five weeks.
At the start of the session, oil prices briefly surged to their highest level since mid-2022 due to shipping disruptions that tightened supply as the war with Iran entered its tenth day. The spike in energy prices initially raised inflation concerns, but oil later retreated following reports that the U.S. government is considering easing oil sanctions on Russia. Market movements remained volatile asinvestors continued to respond to developmentsin the Middle East conflict.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.50% to 47,740.80, the S&P 500 gained 0.83% to 6,795.99, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.38% to 22,695.95. Most sectors in the S&P 500 closed higher, led by technology stocks, while the financial and energy sectors weakened.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks closed sharply lower on Monday amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, although losses were partially trimmed after oil prices retreated from their highs. Germany’s DAX fell 0.8%, France’s CAC 40 slipped 1%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined 0.3%.
On the economic front, German factory orders plunged 11.1% in January—far worse than expected—while industrial production fell 0.5%. Concerns over the global economy also increased after data showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs in February and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, potentially complicating policy decisions for the Federal Reserve amid surging energy prices.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks tumbled on Monday as surging oil prices triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened investor fears of renewed global inflation pressures. Regional equity markets opened sharply lower, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI leading the declines after oil prices surpassed USD100 per barrel.
The Nikkei 225 dropped more than 7% to a two-month low, while the KOSPI briefly fell over 8%, triggering a circuit breaker and halting trading for 20 minutes. The oil price surge—which briefly reached around USD111 per barrel— raised concerns that global inflation could accelerate again just as many central banks were preparing to ease monetary policy.
China’s Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 each fell around 2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 3.5%. Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 4%, Singapore’s Straits Times Index slipped 3%, and futures tied to India’s Nifty 50 declined more than 2% amid heightened market volatility.
• COMMODITIES : Escalating conflict between the U.S.–Israel alliance and Iran has begun to disrupt global energy supply, pushing oil prices up nearly 30% to around USD119 per barrel on March 9—the highest level since 2022. Shipping traffic across the Gulf has largely halted due to security threats, forcing several Middle Eastern oil producers to cut output as export routes remain blocked and storage capacity tightens.
Saudi Aramco has reportedly begun reducing production at two of its oilfields, following similar cuts by Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. In Iraq, output from major southern oilfields was cut by around 70% to about 1.3 million barrels per day, while Bahrain declared force majeure after an attack on its refinery complex. Analysts estimate the conflict has already removed around 200 million barrels of oil from global supply over the past ten days.
• INDONESIA : The JCI plunged in Monday’s trading (March 9), briefly touching an intraday low of -5.2% to 7,156 before trimming losses to -3.27%, or down 248 points to 7,337.37. A total of 708 stocks declined, 68 advanced, and 41 were unchanged, indicating strong selling pressure in the domestic equity market. Trading value reached IDR 23.77 trillion, involving 46.64 billion shares across 1.62 million transactions. All sectors closed lower, with the deepest declines seen in the infrastructure and industrial sectors. Large-cap blue-chip stocks were the main drag on the index, with BBRI, BYAN, BREN, AMMN, and BMRI weighing heavily on the IHSG’s performance.
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