Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : The benchmark S&P 500 index fell 1.2% to 6,799.99, while the NASDAQ Composite slid 1.6% to 22,540.59. The Dow Jones Industrial Average weakened 1.2% to 48,908.41. All three major U.S. indices closed sharply lower on Thursday as risk-off sentiment pressured markets, including metals and Bitcoin. Technology stocks extended losses, led by post-earnings declines in Qualcomm and Alphabet. Weak labor market data also weighed on sentiment.
From the economic calendar, data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed U.S. job cuts in January reached 108,435—the highest since 2009 and triple December 2025’s 35,554. Weekly jobless claims came in at 231K (above expectations), while continuing claims rose to 1.844 million (below forecasts). December JOLTS data showed job openings slowing to 6.542 million, well below the 7.2 million consensus. The probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in March rose to nearly 16% from around 9% a day earlier. The Fed last week held rates at 3.5%–3.75% after three consecutive cuts in 2025.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European equities weakened on Thursday, driven by negative sentiment from Wall Street, major corporate earnings releases, and policy meetings by the ECB and the Bank of England. Germany’s DAX fell 0.6%, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 dropped 1%, and France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.3%.
German industrial orders rose 7.8% in December (m/m), contrary to expectations of a 2.2% decline.
The ECB again held interest rates, with policy expected to remain accommodative amid low inflation and steady growth. The deposit rate was kept at 2%, the level since the June cut last year. Eurozone CPI inflation eased to 1.7% y/y in January from 1.9% in December. The Bank of England also kept rates unchanged at its first meeting of the year, with inflation still well above target.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stock markets declined on Thursday, retreating from early-week record highs, as sharp volatility in global tech shares amid AI disruption concerns weighed on sentiment. The pullback followed a heavy selloff in U.S. tech stocks overnight, with the Nasdaq falling more than broader benchmarks.
Pressure followed a volatile week for technology and semiconductor stocks, driven by concerns that AI advances could disrupt business models and compress margins, prompting profit-taking after a strong rally. South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 3.7% after hitting records over the prior two sessions. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each fell more than 5% on profit-taking. In China, the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite each fell nearly 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 1.2%, with the Hang Seng TECH sub-index down 1.5%.
• COMMODITIES – OIL: Oil prices settled down nearly 3% on Thursday amid volatile trading, after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, easing concerns over Iranian supply. Brent fell USD 1.91 (-2.75%) to USD 67.55/bbl, while WTI dropped USD 1.85 (-2.84%) to USD 63.29/bbl. The talks come as the U.S. boosts its military presence in the Middle East, while regional players seek to avoid escalation. About 20% of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a key export route for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran.
• COMMODITIES – METALS : Gold prices fell on Thursday, reversing earlier gains, while silver plunged sharply. At 14:41 ET, spot gold fell 2.7% to USD 4,830.83/oz and April gold futures slipped 2% to USD 4,852.01/oz. Spot silver tumbled 15.6% to USD 74.4235/oz, while March silver futures dropped 12.3% to USD 74.035/oz. Silver’s decline was driven by heavy selling that began in China, with Shanghai futures pressuring spot markets.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed down 0.53% at 8,103.88, pressured by continued weakness in conglomerate stocks. On the positive side, fundamentally strong consumer stocks and big banks remained stable, indicating accumulation by Danantara, led by BMRI. Today, the market is likely to remain bearish following Moody’s downgrade of the outlook to Negative, despite the rating remaining investment grade at Baa2. Stay cautious with tight stop-loss and trailing stops amid the volatility.
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