XA Update Report | Aneka Tambang Tbk. (ANTM) – Aggressive Downstreaming Provides Avenue For Growth

 

 

By Axell Ebenhaezer (Senior Analyst) & Kevin Pratama (Research Associate)

21-May-2026

 

 

ANTM reported a strong 1Q26 financial performance, with revenue increasing by 12% YoY to IDR 29.3 trillion while bottom line improved by a substantial 60% YoY to IDR 3.4 trillion. Gold remains the company’s bread and butter, with rising domestic demand for the metal pushing up the segment’s revenue by 11% YoY to IDR 23.8 trillion despite a much lower sales volume (-38.4%). This and rising global gold benchmark prices also improved the company’s net profit margin to 11.6%.

 

 

 

🔹 Gold to continue driving performance

 

• We expect gold to still be ANTM’s main catalyst for both short- and long-term growth. The company secured 900kg in RKAB production quota for the year (up from 743kg), boosting internal supply contribution. Freeport’s resumption of operations at their Grasberg mine, though partial, will also help reduce sourcing risk. We forecast ANTM hitting its guidance numbers of 60% gold input being domestically sourced, and we expect the company’s sales volume to exceed 40 tons this year.

 

 

• Gold benchmark prices have also reached historic heights over the past 18 months, and we see it remaining relatively high for the remainder of the year. With a stronger ASP, we project overall company revenue to climb by 35% to IDR 114 trillion this year.

 

 

• ANTM is currently in the process of constructing a precious metal manufacturing plant in Gresik with an estimated annual output of 5 million pieces of gold bars and coins.

 

 

• The plant is projected to be completed by 4Q27; thus it will start contributing to the company’s topline in FY28

 

 

 

🔹 Nickel and aluminum downstreaming remains on track

 

• Both nickel and aluminum refining are key business segments for ANTM’s future growth as the company seeks to diversify its income stream.

 

 

• For this year, the company has secured RKAB quotas for both nickel and bauxite that are higher than last year’s realized production. Strong nickel benchmark prices can thus be taken advantage of, while excess bauxite production can be channeled to the company’s Mempawah refinery.

 

 

• In the longer term, we see the company’s NPI and HPAL smelters in East Halmahera doubling the company’s revenue from this segment once completed in FY27 and FY28 respectively.

 

 

• ANTM has also begun groundbreaking in 1Q26 for its Mempawah Alumina refinery Phase 2 expansion, adding another 1 million tons of alumina capacity when completed in FY28.

 

 

 

 

🔹 BUY recommendation with a TP of IDR 4,150

 

• We give ANTM a BUY rating with a TP of IDR 4,150. This implies a forward PE ratio of 9.86x, PBV of 2.28x, and EV/EBITDA of 6.75x. Our target is equivalent to the company’s 3-Yr PE ratio SD-1.

 

 

• Domestic and global macro factors remain large influences on the company’s prospects. This includes fluctuating crude oil prices, ever-changing domestic mining policies, and US interest rate decisions.

 

 

• Risks: 1) Regulatory changes 2) Gold supply disruption 3) New project execution delays

 

 

 

 

Download full report HERE.

 

 

 

 

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