XA Update Report | PT Hatten Bali Tbk. (WINE) – High-Value Tourism Provide Scaffolding For Growth Despite Forex Pressure

 

 

By Steven Willie (Research Associate) & Sri Bintang Radhya (Research Associate)

21-May-2026

 

 

WINE posted a subdued 1Q26, with revenue growing a modest +1% YoY to IDR 58 bn — broadly in line with our estimates, tracking at a 19% run-rate for FY26F, (vs. 20% over the past three years). The HoReCa and cellar segments remained under pressure, declining 11% and 18% YoY, respectively, weighed down by softer on-trade consumption. The shortfall was offset by a resilient retail segment (+13% YoY), steady outer segment growth (+14% YoY), and a notable surge in the Others segment which grew +87% YoY. GPM narrowed to 37% in 1Q26 (vs. 43% in 1Q25), as COGS rose 11% YoY. OPM similarly contracted to 16% (vs. 21% in 1Q25). Net profit fell a steeper -35% YoY to IDR 5 bn, with NPM declining to 9% (vs. 14% in 1Q25).

 

 

 

🔹 1Q26 Financial Performance

 

• Soft start to the year, but still in-line. WINE posted a subdued 1Q26, with revenue growing a modest +1% YoY to IDR 58 bn — broadly in line with our estimates, tracking at a 19% run-rate for FY26F, (vs. 20% over the past three years). Volume sales edged up 3% YoY, though the soft trajectory could reflect a broader pullback in consumer spending on discretionary goods as macro uncertainty continues to cloud near-term sentiment.

 

 

• Retail and outer pick up the slack. The Horeca and cellar segments remained under pressure, declining 11% and 18% YoY, respectively, weighed down by softer on-trade consumption. The shortfall was offset by a resilient retail segment (+13% YoY), steady outer segment growth (+14% YoY), and a notable surge in the Others segment which grew +87% YoY.

 

 

• Margins compress as costs outpace volumes. GPM narrowed to 37% in 1Q26 (vs. 43% in 1Q25), as COGS rose 11% YoY — a pace that volume growth was unable to keep up with. OPM similarly contracted to 16% (vs. 21% in 1Q25). Net profit fell a steeper -35% YoY to IDR 5 bn, with NPM declining to 9% (vs. 14% in 1Q25).

 

 

 

🔹 The Premiumization is Still On Track

 

• Cellardoor opening in Jakarta remains on schedule for FY26. This move could extend WINE’s brand equity beyond Bali and into Indonesia’s largest urban consumer market. Alongside this, WINE has introduced two new premium labels, Avara and Two Islands Reserve, both positioned to penetrate the high-end HoReCa segment and deepen the company’s presence in the luxury dining and hospitality space.

 

 

• Bali’s premium tourism trend provides a demand floor. Data from Kementerian Pariwisata (kemenpar.go.id) shows that starred hotel occupancy in Bali rose +5.9% YoY as of March 2026, even as non-starred hotels declined 2.4% YoY — a divergence that supports our view that premiumization within Bali’s tourism landscape, driven primarily by higher-spending visitors, remains a durable tailwind.

 

 

 

 

🔹 Adjusting Our FY26F Estimates

 

• FX Headwinds pressures raw material costs. The primary margin headwind stems from AUD/IDR movement, with IDR depreciating approximately -13% YTD against the AUD — a currency pair that is directly material to WINE’s cost structure given its exposure to AUD-denominated raw material costs. This feeds through into sustained COGS pressure and continued near-term margin compression.

 

 

• A natural hedge in the tourist base. While weaker domestic purchasing power poses a demand risk, we note a potential offset: a depreciated IDR makes Indonesia a more cost-competitive destination for foreign tourists — potentially driving higher tourist inflows into Bali, which directly benefits WINE’s core consumer base.

 

 

• Adjusting our estimates. We revise our FY26F revenue estimate down 7% to IDR 305 bn and lower our net profit estimate to IDR 41 bn (+4% YoY growth), reflecting the FX-driven COGS pressure and softer near-term macro backdrop.

 

 

 

🔹 OVERWEIGHT Recommendation with Target Price at IDR 190 / Share

 

• We downgrade our rating to OVERWEIGHT on WINE with a revised target price of IDR 190/share (from IDR 230 previously). The downgrade reflects the meaningful compression in near-term earnings visibility driven by sustained AUD/IDR cost pressures and a more cautious stance on domestic discretionary spending. That said, we continue to favor WINE as a premium and tourist-heavy consumer base play within Indonesia’s beverages space.

 

 

 

Download full report HERE.

 

 

 

 

NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id