Today’s Outlook :

 

• US MARKET : All three major U.S. indexes closed higher, with gains accelerating into the close. The S&P 500 rose about 1.0%, the NASDAQ +1.2%, and the Dow Jones +0.6%, driven by technology stocks. This rally pushed the S&P 500 to its highest level since before the Iran war, meaning all losses during the conflict have now been fully recovered.

 

 

Sentiment remains influenced by the U.S.–Iran conflict after weekend talks failed to reach an agreement. President Donald Trump said Iran is seeking a deal, but the U.S. still refuses any arrangement that allows Iran to possess nuclear weapons. This came after the U.S. began blockading ships from Iranian ports, which Iran responded to by threatening ports in Gulf countries.

 

 

Although the gains suggest investors are starting to look past geopolitical risks, the market remains cautious as any escalation in the conflict or disappointing corporate earnings could trigger renewed volatility.

 

 

• SECOND ROUND OF CEASEFIRE TALKS:

The U.S. and Iran are discussing a second round of face-to-face meetings to continue ceasefire negotiations after failing to reach a breakthrough previously, according to a Bloomberg report.

 

 

Pembicaraan baru ditargetkan berlangsung sebelum batas waktu gencatan senjata dua minggu (7 April) berakhir minggu depan, dengan Islamabad sebagai salah satu lokasi yang dipertimbangkan.

 

 

Donald Trump also stated that Iran has reached out to seek a deal, opening the possibility for further negotiations. However, at the same time, the U.S. continues its naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuzto increase pressure on Iran.

 

 

 

• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stock markets declined on Monday as investors assessed the U.S.–Iran weekend talks that failed to produce a permanent ceasefire, along with President Donald Trump’s threat to immediately blockade the Strait of Hormuz. The Stoxx 600, Germany’s DAX, and the UK’s FTSE 100 each fell around 0.2%, while France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.3%.

 

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) also signaled it will closely monitor the inflationary impact of the conflict. Markets are now pricing in around three interest rate hikes of 25 basis points each by the ECB through the end of 2026, according to LSEG estimates.

 

 

 

• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks fell on Monday after U.S.–Iran talks failed to reach an agreement, with the U.S. preparing to blockade the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Iran. Rising oil prices also weighed on markets, with Brent surging 8% and returning above USD 100/barrel. A Hormuz blockade could disrupt oil and gas supplies to Asia.

 

 

KOSPI Korea Selatan dan Nikkei 225 Jepang menjadi yang terburuk, masing-masing turun lebih dari 1%. Indeks TOPIX Jepang turun 0,3%. Saham China relatif lebih stabil, dengan CSI 300 dan Shanghai Composite bergerak datar hingga sedikit melemah. Namun Hang Seng Hong Kong turun 1,2% akibat tekanan saham teknologi.

 

 

 

• COMMODITIES : Oil prices fell sharply in early Asian trading on Tuesday as markets assessed supply risks and the potential for ceasefire talks after the U.S. began blockading Iranian ports.

 

 

WTI futures fell 2.1% to USD 90.98/barrel. Previously, oil prices had surged on Monday but pulled back from intraday highs after Donald Trump said 34 ships had passed through Hormuz before the blockade began—the highest since the Iran war started in late February.

 

 

Nevertheless, the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was still holding as of Tuesday morning, with no reports of new strikes since Sunday. Earlier, oil prices had recorded their highest monthly gains in March as the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran disrupted about 20% of global oil supply. Iran had also closed the Strait of Hormuz and attacked energy infrastructure across the Middle East, triggering widespread production shutdowns.

 

 

 

• INDONESIA : The JCI closed higher by +0.55% in the green zone at 7,500.2, successfully breaking the next resistance in the 7,200–7,300 range, despite the first session being dragged down by panic from the spike in oil prices and the failure of U.S.–Iran negotiationsin Pakistan.

 

 

For now, Indonesia’s market position appears relatively safer to hold portfolios, as it has started to show resilience against global geopolitical news, reflected in the IHSG rebounding from the 6,900/7,200 support levels.

 

 

For today’s trading, the IHSG has the potential to continue its upward trend, with fund flows still rotating into conglomerate stocks—this rotation can be utilized as a trading opportunity.

 

 

 

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