Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street indexes closed mostly flat on Tuesday, but managed to rebound from intraday lows supported by gains in chip stocks and speculation over an Iran ceasefire. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,616.84; the NASDAQ gained 0.1% to 22,017.85; while the Dow Jones fell 0.2% to 46,584.46.
President Donald Trump said he would delay plans for a military strike on Iran by two weeks, as Tehran signaled openness to a conditional ceasefire. The delay is contingent on the full, safe, and immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan stated that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to an immediate ceasefire and invited both to peace talks. Iran said it is ready to halt defensive operations if attacks against it stop, and assured that the Strait of Hormuz could be safely navigated again.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains a key issue. The route carries about 20% of global oil supply and has been disrupted for weeks, raising concerns over global energy supply—especially for Asia and Europe. However, Iran denied any formal negotiations with the U.S. and stressed it would not reopen the strait based on “empty promises.” Iran also warned of potential escalation, including threats to close other strategic routes such as Bab-el-Mandeb.
The impact of the conflict on the U.S. economy is also becoming evident. Data showed that the U.S. services sector grew at a slower pace in March, with declining employment and a spike in prices (an indicator of inflation) to the highest level since October 2022.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell as much as 1.2% intraday on Tuesday, driven by President Donald Trump’s 8:00 p.m. EDT deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—a key route for around 20% of global oil supply.
The index, returning from a four-day Easter break, opened under pressure amid escalating conflict sentiment. Energy prices surged 2.5% during the session, as markets priced in a war premium of around USD 5–10 per barrel on front-month contracts.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian equities traded in a narrow range on Tuesday as investors adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing uncertainty capped risk appetite.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX were largely unchanged. In China, the Shanghai Composite was flat, while the CSI 300 edged down 0.3%. Hong Kong markets were closed for a public holiday.
In South Korea, the KOSPI rose 0.2%, supported by technology stocks— particularly after Samsung Electronics projected an eightfold surge in first-quarter operating profit, driven by strong demand for AI chips.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices plunged more than 15% in Asian trading on Wednesday after President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, just hours before the deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 18% to USD 92.61 per barrel at 19:38 ET (23:38 GMT), after previously settling 0.3% higher at USD 112.41 per barrel on Tuesday
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed down 0.26% in the red at 6,971.0, with the next resistance seen in the 7,200–7,300 range. Given current conditions, a faster-paced scalping trading strategy appears more prudent amid ongoing global volatility. That said, the market has the potential to move into the green today following the announcement of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Nevertheless, investors should continue to anticipate potential moves linked to the “TACO Trump” phenomenon in an environment that remains highly volatile.
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