Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.4%, the S&P 500 +0.5%, and the NASDAQ Composite +0.5%.
Investor focus remained on rapidly evolving developments in the Middle East, where diplomatic efforts to halt the conflict began to weaken.
A U.S.-backed proposal with mediators such as Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey called for a 45-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran rejected it, demanding a permanent end to the conflict, guarantees against future attacks, sanctions relief, war compensation, and a broader regional settlement. Meanwhile, Donald Trump escalated pressure ahead of the Tuesday 8:00 p.m. ET deadline, threatening large-scale U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure if conditions are not met.
The Strait of Hormuz—which handles about 20% of global oil flows— remains disrupted, pushing oil prices sharply higher and adding inflationary pressure.
ISM data showed the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 54.0 from 56.1 (February), below expectations of 54.8, but still above the expansion level (50). The report reflects a mixed macro backdrop: business activity slowed and employment weakened, while demand (new orders) remained relatively strong. The prices index surged sharply—the biggest increase in over 13 years—indicating rising inflationary pressures from higher energy costs and supply disruptions.
• EUROPEAN MARKET :European stock markets were closed on Monday due to a holiday.
• ASIAN MARKET : Japanese and South Korean markets rose on Monday in thin holiday trading, as investors monitored reports that the U.S., Iran, and other mediators are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire. Trading volumes were relatively low as markets in Hong Kong, mainland China, and Australia were closed.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.4% and TOPIX +0.7%, while South Korea’s KOSPI gained 1.1%. Sentiment improved after an Axios report indicated discussions toward a ceasefire that could lead to a broader agreement to end the war.
• COMMODITIES : U.S. oil prices rose more than USD 1 on Tuesday after Donald Trump increased pressure on Iran, threatening stronger action if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose USD 1.12 (+1.1%) to USD 113.52 per barrel at 22:45 GMT.
Trump said he would order sweeping attacks on Iranian civilian power plants and bridges on Tuesday night if Tehran does not reach a deal to end the five-week war. The statement came ahead of the Tuesday 8:00 p.m. EDT deadline.
The U.S. is demanding Iran halt nuclear weapons development and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also warned that the entire country could be “taken out in one night.”
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed down 0.53% in the red at 6,989.43. The next resistance is seen around 7,200–7,300, with the correction driven by the release of High Shareholder Composition (HSC) data in two of the top 10 large-cap stocks, Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN) and Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), which are still facing pressure.
For Indonesia, a faster-paced scalping trading strategy appears more appropriate for now, given ongoing global volatility and elevated oil prices, which remain negative sentiment for the IHSG despite some recent easing.
The market is also awaiting clarity on policies regarding free float requirements and potential MSCI-related overhang.
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