XA Update Report | PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA) – Defensive and Steady Performance in a Challenging Landscape – Compelling Valuation Signals Opportunity
By Leonardo Lijuwardi (Senior Research Analyst)
17-Mar-2026
BBCA closed FY25 by recording a net profit of IDR 57.5T (+4.9% YoY). This performance was primarily supported by Net Interest Income (NII), which grew +4.1% YoY to IDR 85.4T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 82.0T & Quarterly Basis: +0.9% QoQ | 3Q25: IDR 21.4T & 4Q25: IDR 21.6T), reflecting still-resilient core lending activity. Meanwhile, Non-Interest Income reached IDR 25.6T (+16% YoY), driven by solid growth in fees & commissions (+10.7% YoY), indicating sustained transactional activity across the franchise. BBCA’s Net Interest Margin (NIM) expanded slightly to 5.7% in FY25 (FY24: 5.6%), supported by its strong CASA base and efficient funding structure. Operating expenses rose moderately by +1.5% YoY to IDR 35.8T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 35.3T & Quarterly Basis: +7.8% QoQ | 3Q25: IDR 8.8T & 4Q25: IDR 9.5T), allowing Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) to grow +7.4% YoY to IDR 75.3T (FY24: IDR 70.4T & Quarterly Basis: -7.8% QoQ | 3Q25: IDR 19.6T & 4Q25: IDR 18.1T). Cost-to-Income Ratio (CIR) improved to 30.7% (FY24: 31.3%), supported by disciplined cost management. Overall, FY25 net profit reached 97% of our estimate (NHKSI Estimate: IDR 59.4T), underpinned by solid liquidity growth and still-optimal loan disbursement amid a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.
🔹 Lending Side: Corporate Segment Remains the Key Driver Throughout FY25
• Loan disbursement remained in line with expectations. BBCA recorded loan growth of +7.7% YoY and +5.2% QoQ to IDR 992.9T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 921.9T | 9M25: IDR 944.1T), in line with management guidance (FY25 Loan Growth: 6–8%). For FY26, management guides loan growth at 8–10%, which we expect to remain moderately achievable.
• Corporate loans continued to be the primary growth driver. The corporate segment, accounting for 48% of total loans, grew +11.5% YoY and +9.6% QoQ to IDR 478.9T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 429.5T | 9M25: IDR 436.9T). This strong performance helped offset softer growth in the mid-segment, particularly SME and commercial lending. The commercial segment posted +8.5% YoY growth to IDR 146.8T (FY24: IDR 135.3T | 9M25: IDR 142.9T), while SME loans expanded +5.7% YoY to IDR 130.9T (FY24: IDR 123.7T | 9M25: IDR 129.3T), still outperforming industry growth of approximately 3%.
• Consumer loans softened in line with weakening consumption trends. Auto loans declined -13.3% YoY, resulting in overall consumer loan growth of only +0.2% YoY to IDR 224.1T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 223.8T | 9M25: IDR 223.7T). The segment was supported by personal loans and mortgages, which grew +9.8% YoY and +5% YoY, respectively.
🔹 Funding Side: Defensive Positioning with Strong CASA Accumulation Throughout FY25
• Liquidity remained a key strength, supported by robust CASA growth. Third-party funds (DPK) increased +10.2% YoY and +3.7% QoQ to IDR 1,249T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 1,134T & 3Q25: IDR 1,205T). CASA grew strongly by +13.1% YoY and +4.6% QoQ to IDR 1,045T, while time deposits declined -2.8% YoY and -1.0% QoQ to IDR 204T (FY24: IDR 242T & 9M25: IDR 321T), reflecting a continued shift toward lower-cost funding. As a result, CASA ratio improved further to 83.7% in FY25 (FY24: 81.5% | 9M25: 82.9%), reinforcing BBCA’s funding advantage.
🔹 BBCA Asset Quality: Stable Asset Quality with Lower Provisioning in 4Q25
• Asset quality remained well preserved, alongside a notable decline in provisioning in 4Q25. NPL declined to 1.7% in FY25 (FY24: 1.8% | 3Q25: 2.1%), while Loan at Risk (LAR) improved to 4.8% (FY24: 5.3% | 3Q25: 5.5%). Cost of Credit (CoC) stood at 0.5% in FY25 (FY24: 0.3%), still within a manageable range. NPL and LAR coverage in 4Q25 increased by +17% QoQ and +2.1% QoQ, respectively, indicating prudent risk management. Provisioning expenses declined sharply by -44.6% QoQ to IDR 0.8T in 4Q25, bringing total FY25 provisions to IDR 4.3T (+67.7% YoY), reflecting normalization following prior precautionary buffers.
🔹 FY26 Outlook: Conservative Tone – Maintaining a Defensive Stance
• FY26 Guidance: Management targets loan growth of 8–10%, slightly more expansionary than FY25, with NIM at 5.4–5.6%. CIR is guided at 31–33%, lower than the typical 32–34% range in prior years. CoC is expected at 40–60 bps. Based on this guidance, we project loan growth to remain moderate, with BBCA achieving NIM of 5.6% and net profit of IDR 60.7T in FY26 (+5.5% YoY), reflecting its resilience amid macroeconomic pressures.
🔹 “Buy” Recommendation with Target Price of IDR 8,800 (Upside Potential of +30.4%)
• NHKSI Research maintains a “Buy” recommendation with a target price of IDR 8,800, implying a forward 26F P/BV of 3.5x (-1 STD of the past 3 years). Despite the downward revision in TP, recent market correction driven by regulatory risks and macro uncertainties has pushed BBCA’s valuation to historically discounted levels. We view this as increasingly attractive, particularly given its typical premium valuation range of around 4x P/BV, supported by its superior fundamentals.
• Potential catalysts include sustained operational performance supported by loan growth and a more expansionary NIM trajectory. Key risks to our call include macroeconomic and political uncertainty, intensifying competition within the banking sector, and potential downside to loan growth and NIM relative to expectations.
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