XA Update Report | United Tractors (UNTR) 12M25 – Macro Sentiments Boost Prospects

 

By Axell Ebenhaezer (Senior Research Analyst) & Kevin Pratama (Associate)

03-Mar-2026

 

UNTR reported a steep 24% YoY decline in net income for FY25 (IDR 14.8 trillion vs 19.5 trillion) as top line slips by 2% (IDR 131.3 trillion vs IDR 134.4 trillion). Coal price softness continues to hinder performance, with HBA prices falling to USD 100.81/ton (-11.9% YoY) while Newcastle prices declined to USD 107.5/ton (-14.2%). Revenue from the company’s mining contracting and coal mining segments fell by 7% YoY each, while ballooning gold prices helped partially offset this top line decline.

 

 

🔹 National coal production cuts set to support price but hinder volume

 

• UNTR saw volume improvements in their heavy machinery and coal mining segments; Komatsu sales volume slightly increased by 2% YoY while coal sales volume jumped by 9% YoY. On the flip side, overburden removal fell by 10% YoY on account of lower strip ratios and high rainfall in the first half of FY25.

 

• The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) is looking to slash coal RKAB production quotas for FY26, potentially to 600 – 650 million tons, to support slipping coal prices. With lower total production we expect DMO to be adjusted to at least 30% to fulfill domestic energy needs.

 

• We see coal companies having slightly improved ASPs, especially for medium and high calorie coal off the back of these regulatory changes. These proposed productions cuts will likely hamper UNTR’s mining contracting and heavy machinery segments as mining operations scale down.

 

• RKAB cuts will likely reduce TTA’s production and UNTR’s overall coal sales volume; we forecast volume for FY26 to stand at 14.5 – 15.5 million tons, higher than FY25 but nonetheless lower than the previous company-stated target.

 

 

 

🔹 Global sentiments positive for commodity prices

 

• Gold has been the one shining light in the company’s FY25 performance. Despite sales volume falling by 2% YoY to 227k oz, we saw revenue from the gold & other mineral mining segment jump to IDR 14 trillion (+41% YoY) as ASP rockets.

 

 

• We forecast gold prices to further climb in FY26 to USD 6,000/oz as global geopolitical instability and trade tensions escalate further, driving up investment flow to defensive assets like gold. Alongside UNTR’s gold ASP, we suspect coal prices may also see a decent uptick as instability in the Middle East drive up energy prices.

 

 

• UNTR’s gold production is currently shrouded in uncertainty as its Martabe gold mine had its license revoked amidst environmental negligence allegations, with the government attempting to seize mining operations.

 

 

• However, we expect a deal to be struck between the company and the government, allowing the mine to be reinstated and resume operations sometime this year. We expect gold production volume to slightly dip due to these regulatory issues and continued constrained tailing capacity, with our FY26 forecast standing at 210k – 220k ounces.

 

 

• We view gold as a key future growth driver for UNTR as the company attempts to boosts production. This includes the recently acquired Doup project in North Sulawesi which could boost gold production to 400k oz in FY28.

 

 

 

🔹 Overweight recommendation with a TP 32,000

 

• We give UNTR an OVERWEIGHT rating with a TP of IDR 32,000 and a potential upside of 11.5%. This implies a forward PE ratio of 7.05x, slightly above the company’s 5-Yr mean, and a forward EV/EBITDA of 3.16x.

 

• Risks: 1) Weak coal export market 2) Regulatory risk 3) Weather

 

 

 

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