Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday after the latest Federal Reserve policy minutes came in more hawkish than expected. Walmart fell following its first quarterly report under a new CEO. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 6,862.16; the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.3% to 22,682.73; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.5% to 49,395.16.
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting showed that almost all members supported holding interest rates steady, but views were split on the future policy path. Several members were ready to consider rate hikes if inflation remained above the 2% target. AI also emerged as a source of uncertainty, with debate over whether it would fuel or dampen inflation.
Thursday’s economic data showed the U.S. goods and services trade deficit widened to USD 70.3 billion in December; for 2025, the deficit reached USD 901.5 billion. Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 (below the expected 223,000).
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks weakened amid a flood of earnings reports and heightened geopolitical tensions. The DAX fell 1%, the CAC 40 declined 0.4%, and the FTSE 100 dropped 0.6%. Around 60% of European companies have so far beaten earnings expectations. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated after U.S.-mediated Ukraine–Russia talks again failed to yield a breakthrough, including on the Donetsk region.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks advanced, supported by a rally in technology shares, despite persistent uncertainty over U.S. interest rates. Chinese and Hong Kong markets were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.
The KOSPI surged nearly 3% to a record 5,673.11, driven by technology stocks. Samsung Electronics rose more than 4% to a record after reports of plans to raise prices for advanced memory chips amid surging AI demand. Samsung has also begun mass production of HBM4 chips. Along with SK Hynix, both companies are benefiting from the AI trend and potential chip shortages. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.6% and the TOPIX gained 0.7%, aided by a weaker yen.
• COMMODITIES – OIL: Oil prices rose about 2% to a six-month high amid concerns over escalating U.S.–Iran tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude settled up USD 1.31 (1.9%) at USD 71.66 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose USD 1.24 (1.9%) to USD 66.43 per barrel.
• INDONESIA : The JCI declined again, down 0.43% to 8,284.08. Flows today appear likely to remain in the commodities sector, particularly oil, in line with rising oil, gold, and nickel prices. Several oil-related stocks are worth monitoring for fast-trade opportunities. Stay cautious with tight stop-losses and trailing stops amid the current volatility.
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