Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : At the close of trading on the NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.17%, while the S&P 500 index declined 0.06%, and the NASDAQ Composite index slipped 0.06%. Trading volumes were relatively muted ahead of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday on Monday.
Investors also digested news that Trump said he may want to keep his economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, in his current role, which reduced market speculation that Hassett could replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Over the weekend, Trump stated that he would impose an additional 10% tariff on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and the United Kingdom starting February 1. The tariff would rise to 25% in June if no agreement is reached regarding Greenland.
European countries largely condemned the threat, with France proposing a range of retaliatory measures should Trump proceed with the tariffs. The U.S. president has repeatedly called for Greenland to become part of the United States, arguing that such a move is important for U.S. national security. Greenland is a self-governing territory under the Kingdom of Denmark. Earlier, Trump had also raised the possibility of deploying the U.S. military to Greenland—a threat seen as increasingly credible following U.S. military action in Venezuela earlier this year.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks fell on Friday, ending the week in negative territory amid investor concerns over geopolitical developments. Germany’s DAX dropped 0.3%, France’s CAC 40 declined 0.7%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 fell 0.1%.
Tensions escalated after a meeting between U.S., Danish, and Greenlandic officials failed to reach an agreement on Greenland’s future. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said there remained a “fundamental disagreement” with the U.S. and warned that the dispute could threaten the future of NATO.
Meanwhile, data showed that German inflation was flat in December, with annual inflation at 1.8%, below the ECB’s 2% target. The European Central Bank has kept interest rates on hold and signaled it is not in a hurry to change policy, citing relatively strong economic growth and easing inflation pressures.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks traded mixed on Friday, with technology shares gaining in line with strong performance from TSMC, although losses in other sectors capped overall gains. Tech-heavy Asian markets advanced, led by South Korea’s KOSPI, which rose more than 1%, supported by gains in chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics (+3.5%) and SK Hynix (+0.8%), after TSMC reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and reaffirmed strong AI-driven demand.
Technology stocks in Japan and Hong Kong also rose, although the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng were held back by declines in other sectors.
Meanwhile, China tightened regulations on high-frequency trading, including calls to remove servers dedicated to automated trading, following a recent increase in margin requirements. The move triggered a largely negative investor reaction amid concerns over excessive government intervention, while mainland Chinese markets posted sharp losses this week. Market focus remains on Beijing’s stimulus efforts, after December data showed signs of improvement, particularly in consumer spending
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices settled higher on Friday, supported by short-covering ahead of the Martin Luther King Day holiday in the U.S. and lingering concerns over a potential U.S. military strike on Iran. Brent crude rose 0.58% to USD 64.13 per barrel, while WTI gained 0.42% to USD 59.44 per barrel.
On the energy policy front, the White House urged PJM Interconnection, the largest U.S. power grid operator, to conduct an emergency electricity supply auction to prevent rolling blackouts, as energy demand from data centers and AI continues to outpace new power generation capacity. The Trump administration views the move as crucial to curbing rising electricity prices and supply risks in the Mid-Atlantic region, while accelerating more than USD 15 billion in new power generation projects. Energy-driven inflation is also a key concern ahead of the November midterm elections.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed higher and held above the key psychological level, breaking 9,000 to end at 9,075.41. If conglomerate stocks and uptrend stocks in your portfolio remain strong above their 20-day moving average (MA20), this level can be used as a trailing stop reference.
For portfolios exposed to nickel, KBMI 1 banks, and general insurance stocks, investors are advised to remain cautious and consistently apply trailing stops due to elevated volatility. Meanwhile, gold prices briefly touched an all-time high, potentially providing a positive catalyst for gold-related stocks on the JCI.
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