Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : At the close of NYSE trading, the Dow Jones fell 398 points (-0.8%), the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite declined 0.1%. U.S. equities corrected on Tuesday as investors digested the release of U.S. consumer inflation data as well as quarterly earnings reports from the banking sector.
U.S. inflation in December rose 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from November and in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, core inflation stood at 2.6% (yoy) and 0.2% (mom), slightly below estimates.
These data indicate that inflation remains relatively contained, while labor market resilience continues to be a key factor for the Fed in determining the direction of future interest rate policy.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks moved modestly higher on Tuesday, as investors remained cautious amid geopolitical developments, key inflation data releases, and the start of the quarterly earnings season. Germany’s DAX and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 closed flat, while France’s CAC 40 edged down 0.1%.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian stocks advanced on Tuesday, driven by a rally in technology shares amid sustained optimism over the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a new record high, supported by catch-up trade following a long holiday as well as speculation that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may call an early election to strengthen the government’s majority and open room for additional fiscal stimulus.
The Nikkei 225 surged more than 3% to a record level of 53,997.5, while the TOPIX index climbed 2.3% and also reached a record high. The rally was fueled by expectations of a snap election that would allow Takaichi to capitalize on her popularity to strengthen the ruling coalition, while also providing greater flexibility to push policies and fiscal spending. Optimism over stimulus led investors to look past diplomatic tensions between Japan and China related to the Taiwan issue.
Meanwhile, investor interest also increased in Hong Kong and Chinese technology stocks, following a series of positive IPOs by Chinese AI companies that strengthened sentiment toward the sector’s prospects.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices rose again on Tuesday, marking a fourth consecutive session of gains amid rising risks of supply disruptions due to large-scale antigovernment protests in Iran. As of 13:05 GMT, March Brent futures rose 2% to USD 65.15 per barrel, while WTI gained 2.4% to USD 60.75 per barrel. In the previous session, Brent briefly touched a seven-week high, while WTI reached a one-month high.
Iran, one of OPEC’s key producers, is facing its largest protests in several years, marked by violence and heavy casualties following crackdowns by security forces. U.S. President Donald Trump warned of possible military action if Iranian authorities continue to use lethal force against protesters. Trump also announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on any country “doing business” with Iran, as part of efforts to pressure Tehran economically.
ING analysts noted that China remains the main buyer of Iranian oil, meaning the effectiveness of U.S. secondary tariff threats in pushing China away from Iranian oil remains to be seen. Reuters reported that Trump is scheduled to meet senior advisers on Tuesday to discuss policy options regarding Iran.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed with a rebound in the second session, rising +0.72% to 8,948.3, but still failed to break the psychological resistance level of 9,000, while establishing the 8,700–8,800 range as short-term support. Market liquidity remained heavily concentrated in BUMI shares, where declines in several conglomerate stocks—particularly BUMI—immediately dragged down and triggered declines in other conglomerate stocks. If the conglomerate and uptrend stocks in your portfolio remain strong above the MA20, that level should be used as a trailing stop reference.
Gains in the IHSG are supported by numerous attractive narrative catalysts for 2026, such as capital increases for KBMI 1 banks (BNBA, etc.), higher core capital for insurance companies, as well as oil-based stocks and LNG shipping tankers. From a conglomerate perspective, stocks that have yet to see strong fund inflows throughout 2025—such as those tied to seasonal catalysts like the Panin Group— are starting to look attractive, given that many other conglomerates have already experienced significant rallies. If you hold portfolios in nickel, KBMI 1 banks, general insurance, or other narrative-based themes, it is advisable to remain cautious and consistently apply trailing stops due to high volatility.
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