Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : The S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed at fresh all-time highs on Monday, driven by gains in technology stocks that fueled a broad market rebound, despite lingering concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence after the Trump administration renewed its attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Dow Jones rose 86 points (+0.2%) to a record 49,590.20, the S&P 500 gained 0.2% to 6,976.71, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.3%. Investors largely stayed on the sidelines ahead of the release of U.S. December CPI inflation data due on Tuesday.
The Fed and interest rate outlook became a key focus this week after Powell revealed that the Trump administration had threatened legal action against the Fed. While officially linked to the Fed’s renovation project, the move was widely seen as politically motivated, stemming from Powell’s reluctance to cut interest rates as aggressively as President Trump has demanded. These concerns briefly weighed on markets amid fears over the Fed’s independence.
Separately, Trump said his administration is in discussions with Microsoft and other major technology companies to prevent rising electricity costs from data center operations from being passed on to households. However, any regulatory changes could also result in higher operating costs for technology firms and AI data centers.
Market attention is now firmly on December CPI inflation data, which is seen as crucial for shaping expectations around U.S. inflation in 2025 and the Fed’s interest rate outlook, alongside a labor market that has so far remained relatively resilient.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks began the new week mixed on Monday, as investors monitored escalating unrest in Iran and renewed political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Germany’s DAX closed up 0.5%, France’s CAC 40 was flat, while the UK’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.1%.European investors are focusing this week on civil unrest in Iran. According to human rights groups, more than 500 people have been killed after widespread protests were met with a violent crackdown by Iranian authorities.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian stocks advanced on Monday, led by Chinese AIrelated shares amid growing optimism over the sector’s prospects. However, stronger gains were capped by rising geopolitical and macroeconomic risks.
Ongoing global tensions—including protests in Iran, the U.S. military operation in Venezuela, diplomatic friction between China and Japan, and the White House’s push to acquire Greenland—continued to weigh on market sentiment.
In the region, South Korea’s KOSPI was the top performer, rising 1.2% on gains in technology and semiconductor stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.8% on a tech rally, while mainland China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes climbed around 0.5% to 1%.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices rose and settled at seven-week highs on Monday, supported by concerns that Iran’s exports could decline following a harsh crackdown on anti-government protests. Gains were partially limited by expectations of additional supply from Venezuela. Brent crude rose 0.8% to USD 63.87 per barrel, while WTI gained 0.6% to USD 59.50 per barrel.
Iran said it remains open to communication with the U.S. amid international pressure and potential responses from President Donald Trump. Data from Kpler and Vortexa show Iran is currently holding a record amount of oil at sea, equivalent to around 50 days of production, as Chinese purchases decline due to sanctions and Tehran seeks to shield supplies from the risk of U.S. strikes.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed lower by 0.58% at 8,884.72, failing once again to break the key psychological resistance level of 9,000. Market liquidity was heavily concentrated in BUMI shares, where declines in several conglomerate stocks— particularly BUMI—triggered broader selling pressure across other conglomerate names. For stocks that remain in an uptrend and hold above their 20-day moving average (MA20), this level can be used as a reference for trailing stops.Looking ahead, the IHSG continues to be supported by a number of attractive narrative catalysts in 2026, including capital increases for KBMI 1 banks (such as BNBA), higher core capital requirements for insurers, as well as oil-related stocks and LNG shipping tankers. From a conglomerate perspective, names that saw limited upside flow in 2025—such as those tied to seasonal Panin Group catalysts—are starting to look more attractive, especially as other conglomerates have already experienced strong rallies. Investors holding nickel-related stocks, KBMI 1 banks, and general insurance names are advised to remain disciplined with trailing stops, given the elevated market volatility.
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