Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET :U.S. equities weakened for a third consecutive session after the December Federal Reserve meeting minutes signaled a more cautious stance on further rate cuts. The minutes highlighted differing views among policymakers, with some still leaving room for rate reductions should inflation continue to ease, while others favored a pause amid concerns that inflationary pressures could prove more persistent. These concerns reinforced signals that the Fed is beginning to lean toward a less dovish policy stance.
The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones closed slightly lower, reflecting a wait-and-see approach by investors toward the future direction of monetary policy. Amid the broader market weakness, Intel and Meta posted gains on positive sentiment from corporate actions and aggressive expansion in the artificial intelligence sector, although these gains were insufficient to lift the overall technology sector.
Seasonal factors also remained in focus, with investors monitoring the potential for a Santa Claus rally, which typically occurs from late December through early January. Optimism surrounding a seasonal rally had previously supported markets, but the recent pullback has raised doubts about its realization this year. Nevertheless, on an annual basis, U.S. equities remain on track for gains, supported by expectations of future monetary easing, resilient economic growth, and solid corporate earnings performance.
• EUROPEAN MARKET :European equities recorded fresh record closing highs for the second consecutive session, driven by gains in banking and commodity-related stocks, although advances were capped by thin trading volumes toward year-end. The STOXX 600 index rose 0,6%, approaching the psychological 600-point level, with banking, aerospace, and defense sectors leading the gains. Defense stocks have remained strong throughout the year, supported by European countries’ commitments to higher military spending, despite some moderation in momentum since October.
The basic resources sector led gains as gold and silver prices stabilized following a sharp correction, while the energy sector also advanced in line with a previous-session surge in oil prices. The rise in oil prices was driven by geopolitical tensions surrounding the Russia–Ukraine conflict and uncertainty over peace negotiations. All STOXX 600 sub-indices traded in positive territory, with technology stocks also posting moderate gains. Major markets such as London and Germany closed higher, reflecting continued positive regional sentiment.
• ASIAN MARKET :Asian equities traded mostly flat on Tuesday, tracking overnight losses on Wall Street, which were once again weighed down by technology stocks. Trading activity remained subdued due to thinning year-end liquidity and the approaching New Year holidays, prompting investors to refrain from taking large positions. Wall Street index futures moved sideways during the Asian session, reflecting a global wait-and-see stance.
Across the region, index movements were limited and lacked clear direction. Japan posted marginal losses, with the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX each down 0,1%, while South Korea’s KOSPI was largely unchanged. Singapore stood out, with the STI rising 0,6%, while India’s Nifty 50 edged up 0,1% and Australia’s ASX 200 traded flat. In China, the Shanghai Composite was little changed, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0,3%.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices fell on Wednesday and closed 2025 with an annual decline of nearly 20%, reflecting significant pressure from expectations of oversupply amid a year marked by geopolitical conflicts, tighter tariff policies, and increased OPEC+ production. Brent crude posted a decline of around 19% for the year—the steepest annual drop since 2020 and its third consecutive year of losses—while U.S. WTI fell nearly 20%.
In the final trading session of the year, Brent settled at USD 60,85 per barrel, down 0,8%, while WTI ended at USD 57,42 per barrel, down 0,9%. EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories declined more than expected, but sharp increases in gasoline and distillate stocks weighed on market sentiment. U.S. oil production also reached a record high in October, further fueling concerns over global oversupply.
Throughout 2025, the oil market experienced heightened volatility. Sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, the war in Ukraine, the Iran–Israel conflict, and disruptions to shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz had initially pushed prices higher earlier in the year. However, the rally faded as OPEC+ accelerated production increases and concerns grew that U.S. tariffs could dampen global economic growth and energy demand.
• INDONESIA : Indonesia’s Composite Index (IHSG)closed 2025 in positive territory at today’s market close, even as several other Asian stock markets posted mixed performances. On Tuesday(30/12/2025), the IHSG ended at 8.646,93, rising 0,03% or 2,68 points, bringing its full-year gain in 2025 to 22,13% on a point-to-point basis.
Non-primary consumer stocks, infrastructure stocks, and financial stocks recorded the strongest gains during the session, rising 3,03%, 2,04%, and 0,97%, respectively. These were followed by primary consumer stocks, which gained 0,51%, and property stocks, which advanced 0,36%. Overall, the IHSG closed up 22,13% year-on-year in 2025, with all sector sending the year in positive territory, led by the technology sector.
Download Full Report HERE.
