Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET: The S&P 500 closed higher on Monday, extending its year-end rally despite thinning trading volumes due to the holiday week. At the close (4:00 p.m. local time), the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.6%, and the Dow Jones advanced 0.5% or 227 points. Trading activity is expected to remain subdued, with Wall Street closing early on Wednesday and closed on Thursday for Christmas.
Major bank stocks continued to strengthen, led by Citigroup, which surged more than 3% to a new 52-week high amid optimism over sustained deal-making activity and potential deregulation of the financial sector under the Trump administration. Shares of Blackstone, Charles Schwab, and BlackRock also advanced, pushing the financial sector up more than 1%.
AI-related stocks such as NVIDIA, Oracle, and Broadcom rebounded following recent pressure. Investors are also closely watching developments around the Federal Reserve leadership transition, as markets assess potential interest-rate policy signals ahead of Jerome Powell’s term ending in May.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European equities mostly closed lower on Monday after posting gains last week. Germany’s DAX was flat, France’s CAC 40 fell 0.4%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 declined 0.3%. Data showed the UK economy grew 0.1% QoQ in Q3 2025, in line with estimates, with growth increasingly driven by the private sector, while government spending contributions were revised down significantly.
On the corporate front, Saipem shares jumped 4.3% after securing a major offshore contract for Qatar’s LNG expansion project. Telecom Italia approved a plan to convert preferred shares into ordinary shares and reduce capital, which will be discussed at an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting in January. Meanwhile, a private equity consortium led by Permira and Warburg Pincus agreed to acquire Clearwater Analytics for USD 8.4 billion. GSK also reached an agreement with the US government to lower prescription drug prices, including pricing adjustments under Medicaid and new-product pricing strategies.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian equity markets advanced on Monday, driven by broad buying in technology and semiconductor stocks as optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) resurfaced. Gains followed last week’s rally in US equities after concerns over excessive AI spending and elevated valuations began to ease. Chip stocks rebounded as investors assessed AI and data-center demand as still robust.
In China, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged, in line with expectations, signaling a focus on policy stability while balancing growth support and financial risks. Ahead of the year-end holidays, trading volumes are expected to thin, with markets remaining sensitive to movements on Wall Street.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices rose on Monday amid concerns over supply disruptions after the US intercepted Venezuelan oil tankers and as tensions in the Russia–Ukraine conflict escalated. Brent crude climbed 2.17% to USD 61.78 per barrel, while WTI gained 2.2% to USD 57.77 per barrel. Although additional supply from the US and OPEC+ continues to cap further upside, market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump announced a total blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, alongside reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s shadow fleet vessels.
• INDONESIA : The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) closed higher by 0.42% at 8,645.84, though gains remained limited and lacked strong confirmation, as reflected by market breadth dominated by declining stocks. Technically, the IHSG continues to show a negative RSI divergence, warranting caution over the risk of further correction, particularly if the index fails to sustain its rebound.
The 8,700–8,750 range currently serves as short-term resistance, while key support lies at 8,500, with further support around 8,300–8,350. Given these conditions, await-and-see strategy is recommended, while remaining alert to potential pullbacks should the index fail to hold and move back toward support levels.
For now, market rotation remains concentrated in relatively stable conglomerate stocks trading above their 20-day moving averages (MA20), making them attractive for short-term trading strategies. Limited rotation into classic fundamentally strong stocks remains possible, especially if price adjustments occur amid market volatility. Investors are advised to closely monitor each position using individual trailing stops, while paying attention to technical levels, index movements, and domestic catalysts and sentiment, in order to capture selective and measured trading opportunities.
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