Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET: Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 302 points, or 0.6%, the S&P500 slipped 0.3%, while the NASDAQ Composite edged up 0.2%. The S&P500 weakened following mixed U.S. labor market data, which reignited concerns over the overall health of the economy. That said, a rebound in several artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks, including Oracle, helped limit losses in the technology sector.
Tesla shares posted a record-high closing price of USD 489.88, supported by investor optimism over the company’s plan to convert existing electric vehicles into robotaxis. In the AI space, Oracle rebounded from a prior sell-off as investors took advantage of a buy-on-dip opportunity, although concerns over stretched valuations of AI stocks continue to weigh on the market.
On the macro front, U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, beating market expectations of 50,000 and improving from a revised loss of 105,000 jobs in October, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, above the 4.5% consensus and marking the highest level in more than four years, reinforcing signals of a cooling labor market.
Jefferies noted that the data is not yet strong enough to shift the overall balance of risks in the labor market. If an FOMC meeting were held today, the Fed would likely opt to keep interest rates unchanged. Still, with expectations of easing inflationary pressures in 2026, the door remains open for further rate cuts. Investors are also gearing up for the release of November CPI data, which will be a key indicator for the Fed’s policy outlook. Meanwhile, market attention is focused on the succession of the Fed Chair, after reports said U.S. President Donald Trump has narrowed Jerome Powell’s potential successors to Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett.
• EUROPEAN MARKET: European stock markets closed lower on Tuesday, tracking negative sentiment from Wall Street and ahead of a series of central bank meetings. Germany’s DAX fell 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.2%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined 0.7%. This week, investors are closely watching the European Central Bank, which is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2%, amid signs of a gradual recovery in the eurozone economy. The Riksbank, Norges Bank, and the Bank of England are also scheduled to hold policy meetings, with the BoE widely expected to deliver another rate cut.
• ASIAN MARKET: Most Asian stock markets extended their losses on Tuesday, pressured by ongoing concerns over lofty valuations in technology and AI-related stocks. Investor caution ahead of key U.S. and regional economic data releases, as well as the potential for hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, further weighed on sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.6%, dragged down by technology stocks and broader market weakness. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite fell around 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively, amid concerns over a slowdown in China’s economy following a series of weak data releases for November.
• COMMODITIES : Global oil prices closed lower, touching their weakest levels since February 2021. The decline was driven by concerns over global oversupply and rising hopes for a potential Russia–Ukraine peace deal, which could lead to an easing of sanctions. Brent crude fell USD 1.64, or 2.71%, to USD 58.92 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined USD 1.55, or 2.73%, to USD 55.27 per barrel.
• ASIAN MARKET: The JCI closed higher by 0.43% at 8,686.47. The index now has an additional short-term support level above the 8,600 area, with the next support at 8,500. Near-term resistance is seen at 8,700–8,750, while medium-term resistance lies around the psychological level of 9,000. However, given the potential for a negative RSI divergence on the IHSG, investors are advised to remain prepared for a possible pullback toward the 8,500 support level.
Today marks the announcement of Bank Indonesia’s policy decision (RDG-BI), with consensus expectations pointing to the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate remaining unchanged at 4.75%. As a note, conglomerate stocks remain on track above their 20-day moving average (MA20), which can be used as a reference for trailing stops when considering rotation into more traditional, fundamentally driven sectors.
Investors are advised to continue closely monitoring individual stocks using respective trailing stops, while paying attention to index levels and market responses when trading conglomerate stocks, alongside tracking domestic catalysts and sentiment to capture potential trading opportunities.
Download Full Report HERE.
