Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : The S&P 500 fell nearly 0.4% to 6,846.51 points, while the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.1% to 23,545.90 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 0.5% to 47,739.32 points. Wall Street indexes fell on Monday amid caution over the Fed’s decision, while investors also locked in some profitsfrom over the past two weeks.
The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of a two-day meeting on December 10. Bets on a cut were furthered by data last week showing PCE price index inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, unexpectedly cooled in September. But the central bank’s outlook for the U.S. economy will be closely watched, especially amid heightened uncertainty over the world’s largest economy.
NVIDIA Corporation rose nearly 2.2% in aftermarket trade, extending gains from the main session on Monday. Gains after the close came chiefly from Trump stating that he will allow the company to sell its H200 AI chips to approved customers in China and other countries, albeit with a 25% tariff and with restrictions to ensure U.S. national security. Trump said he had informed Chinese President Xi Jinping of his decision, to which Xi “responded positively.” Nvidia’s H200 chip was unveiled in 2023 as the successor to the company’s H100 chip, and is estimated to be about six times more powerful than the H20, the most advanced AI chip that Nvidia is currently allowed to sell to China. Nvidia chips are widely used by Chinese companies in AI development, with Trump’s Monday announcement presenting a path for higher chip sales for the world’s most valuable company. But Beijing ramped up its scrutiny of Nvidia chips this year, amid a push for complete self-reliance in the AI industry. Nvidia earlier this year said it will no longer include China in itsrevenue and profit forecasts.
Netflix’s USD 72 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros Discovery is also still in the spotlight after Paramount launched a rival bid for Warner Bros. The move from Paramount comes on the heels of President Donald Trump wining that a Netflix-Warner Bros tie up “could be a problem,” sparking concerns about regulatory approval headwinds. The president, however, weighed in further on the topic on Monday, saying he would have to see “what percentage of market [share]” Netflix or Paramount Skydance have to evaluate whether a merger would pose antitrust issues
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks traded in a muted fashion Monday, with investors cautiously awaiting the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting later in the week. The DAX index in Germany gained 0.1% and the CAC 40 in France slipped 0.1%, while the FTSE 100 in the U.K. fell 0.2%.
German industrial production rose much more than expected in October, official data showed on Monday, offering hope that the eurozone’s dominant economy was recovering as the year grinds to a close. Industrial production increased by 1.8% compared with the previous month, the federal statistics office said on Monday, ahead of the predicted 0.4% rise.
In the European corporate sector, Unilever lstock retreated Monday after the consumer goods company said it had completed the demerger of its ice cream business. The Magnum Ice Cream Company, now the world’s largest standalone ice cream business and home to brands including Wall’s, Ben & Jerry’s and Cornetto, has received a primary listing on Amsterdam’s Euronext exchange
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks turned in a mixed performance on Monday as investors parsed Chinese trade data, navigated deteriorating China-Japan relations and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due on Wednesday. At the close in Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.13%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.5 percent to 3,924.08 after the release of trade data. According to the customs office, Chinese exports grew 5.9 percent on a yearly basis in November, reversing a 1.1 percent decrease in October. Analysts expected shipments to increase 3.8 percent. Imports posted annual growth of 1.9 percent after rising 1 percent in the previous month. This was weaker than the expected growth of 2.8 percent, resulting in a trade surplus of around USD 112 billion in the month.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slumped 1.2 percent to 25,765.36 as tensions between China and Japan escalated.
• COMMODITIES: Prices slipped 2% on Monday after Iraq restored production at one of its oilfields which accounts for 0.5% of world oil supply, while investors weighed ongoing talks to end the war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures were down USD 1.26, or 1.98%, at USD 62.49 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at USD 58.88, down USD 1.20, or 2%. Iraq restored production at Lukoil’s West Qurna 2 oilfield, one of the world’s largest, after a leak on an export pipeline slashed its output, two Iraqi energy officialstold Reuters on Monday.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed higher at a new all-time high, gaining +0.9% to 8,710.7. The current support level has now shifted higher, with the index forming a new support base above the 8,600 area, followed by the next support zone at 8,400–8,450. Meanwhile, the medium-term resistance remains at the psychological level of 9,000.
For December, market rotation remains concentrated in conglomerate stocks, including the Hapsoro Group, Salim-Bakrie Group, as well as the fast internet ecosystem. Investors are advised to continue monitoring each stock closely using individual trailing stops, while paying attention to the index’s levels and price responses when trading conglomeraterelated stocks, alongside tracking domestic catalysts and sentiment to capture trading opportunities
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