Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : The S&P 500 weakened by 1.2%, the NASDAQ Composite dropped more than 2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.5%.The pullback occurred after senior executives from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs voiced concerns over overheated valuations and speculative trading in technology shares. Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said the market could face a 10%–15% decline, adding that such a correction would be a healthy normalization after months of euphoria fueled by artificial intelligence (AI) optimism.
These warnings emerged as investors also grappled with uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. The prolonged government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, leaving policymakers and market participants without crucial indicators of the U.S. economy’s health. Fed officials on Monday added to the confusion: some suggested a rate cut in December could be considered if inflation continues to cool, while others argued that strong job growth and resilient demand mean policy should remain tight for longer.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks mostly closed lower on Tuesday, as investors took profit amid an uncertain economic outlook and additional corporate earnings to digest. Germany’s DAX index fell 0.8%, France’s CAC 40 declined 0.5%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.1%.The economic climate remains uncertain and growth within the eurozone continues to be elusive, prompting investors to lock in gains. Data released Monday showed eurozone manufacturing activity stagnated in October, with the final Manufacturing PMI at 50.0 — exactly at the threshold separating expansion from contraction. Performance varied significantly: Greece and Spain recorded the strongest improvements with PMI readings of 53.5 and 52.1, respectively, while Germany and France — the bloc’s two largest economies — remained in contraction territory at 49.6 and 48.8. Additionally, further support through monetary easing now appears less likely.
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged last week for the third consecutive meeting, and many expect rates to remain at current levels during the final policy meeting of the year in December.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian shares were mostly subdued on Tuesday as investors assessed the fragility of the U.S.–China trade truce and monitored renewed technology tensions.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that Nvidia’s most advanced Blackwell AI chips would be reserved for domestic use. In a “60 Minutes” interview, Trump stated the chips would “stay in the U.S.” and not be sold to China — reaffirming continued tech export controls despite the temporary trade truce reached last week. Meanwhile, China’s Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng urged Washington to respect Beijing’s “red lines” following the recent Trump–Xi summit in South Korea, where both leaders agreed to a one-year truce and to resume high-level dialogue on trade, technology, and security. Xie said the deal had “recalibrated” relations but warned that tensions could flare again if China’s core interests — including Taiwan and human-rights issues — were challenged.
Investors remained cautious about the durability of the truce, noting that fundamental disagreements between the world’s two largest economies remain unresolved.
China’s CSI 300 blue-chip index slipped 0.5%, the Shanghai Composite eased 0.3%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was little changed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.5% after returning from a market holiday, while the broader TOPIX was mostly flat.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices closed lower on Tuesday as weaker manufacturing data and a stronger dollar weighed on demand, while OPEC+’s decision to pause output hikes in the first quarter of next year signaled concerns over a potential supply glut.
Brent crude futures settled 45 cents lower, or 0.7%, at USD 64.44 per barrel. West Texas.
Intermediate crude fell 49 cents, or 0.8%, to USD 60.56 per barrel.
• INDONESIA : The JCI (IHSG) closed down 0.4% in negative territory at 8241.9, with the next resistance level still at 8300. The index pulled back and failed to break above 8300 as several stocks within the Barito Group declined, exerting notable downward pressure on the index. For traders focusing on conglomerate stocks, momentum opportunities may arise for scalping buys during a potential breakout above the 8300 level — while still monitoring the support–resistance dynamics of these stocks, and whether they have the strength to continue the breakout or if rotation may shift from conglomerates into other sectors.
Rotation Toward Old Dividend Players & Back to Consumer: We continue to recommend partial shifting toward stocks offering dividend yields above government bonds, as well as consumer goods stocks as defensive plays amid ongoing uncertain catalysts — taking advantage of their attractive valuation-yield profiles.
In the tobacco sector, if HMSP manages to break above 920–930 (previous 3-month high), it could present an appealing scalping opportunity and potentially drive momentum into other tobacco names such as GGRM and WIIM.
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