Today’s Outlook:
• Stocks rose Thursday after President Donald Trump announced a trade deal framework between the U.S. and United Kingdom, the first major agreement hatched since the U.S. launched pre-emptive tariffs on most of the globe earlier this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 254.48 points, or 0.62%, to settle at 41,368.45. The S&P 500 rose 0.58% and closed at 5,663.94. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to end at 17,928.14. Trump announced the deal outline from the Oval Office with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer on speakerphone. A 10% baseline tariff will remain on the U.K., according to a graphic posted on Truth Social post by Trump. However, the president noted that the 10% U.K. tariff could be on the low end of deals with future countries and said that “some will be much higher because they have massive trade surpluses.”
• FIXED INCOME AND CURRENCY : Treasury yields rose on Thursday as traders assessed the implications of a trade deal between the U.S. and the United Kingdom. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed more than 11 basis points to 4.39%. The 2- year Treasury yield gained more than 10 basis points, trading at 3.893%. Thursday’s bond market move came one day after the Federal Reserve kept benchmark interest rates unchanged in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, where it has been since December. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted in a post-meeting news conference that President Donald Trump’s tariffs may endanger the central bank’s timeline for achieving its dual mandate. The dollar climbed agaisnt the yen following Trump’s announcement and was last up 1.43% to 145.88 yen. Against the Swiss franc, it was 0.9% stronger at 0.8312 franc. Sterling strengthened 0.2% to $1.3321. The U.S. dollar gained against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc on Thursday with market nerves calmed by news of a trade deal between the United States and Britain, while sterling also strengthened following an interest rate cut from the Bank of England.
• EUROPE : European stocks closed broadly higher Thursday, despite the U.K.’s FTSE 100 erasing gains as the U.K. and U.S. confirmed a trade agreement and the Bank of England cut interest rates. The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 0.4% higher, trimming earlier gains, with Germany’s DAX up 1%. The risk-sensitive technology sector rose 1.64% amid optimism in U.S. markets over trade talk progress. However, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 bucked the trend to tumble 0.32% after snapping its record winning streak on Wednesday. the Bank of England on Thursday cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.25%. The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted by a 5 to 4 majority to reduce rates by 25 basis points. Two of its members voted to cut rates by 50 basis points, while another two wanted to hold rates steady.
• ASIA : Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher after the U.S. Federal Reserve expectedly kept rates unchanged. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 traded 0.41% higher to close at 36,928.63 while the Topix traded flat to end the trading day at 2,698.72. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.22% to close at 2,579.48 while the Kosdaq advanced 0.94% to close at 729.59. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 added 0.16% to close at 8,191.7. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.37% while mainland China’s CSI 300 added 0.56% to close at 3,852.90.
• COMMODITIES : Gold extended losses and fell more than 1% on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with the U.K., raising hopes of such deals with other countries. Gold Prices slipped 1.7% to $3,307.84 an ounce. U.S. gold futures settled 2.5% lower at $3,306. Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a “breakthrough deal” on trade. A 10% tariff on goods imported from the UK remains in place while Britain agreed to lower its tariffs to 1.8% from 5.1% and provide greater access to U.S. goods. Meanwhile, gold reserves in London vaults rose in April as more of the precious metal returned from New York after dislocation. Market players had increased gold deliveries to the U.S. in the December-March period to cover their COMEX positions against the possibility the U.S. would impose tariffs on imports. Oil prices rose about 3% on Thursday, buoyed by hopes of a breakthrough in looming trade talks between the United States and China, the world’s two largest oil consumers. Global oil prices gained $1.72, or 2.81%, to close at $62.84 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.84, or 3.17%, to settle at $59.91. the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, will increase its oil output, pressuring prices as U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could drive Brent prices down, on increased supply in the market, but if no deal were to happen, prices could go up.
• JCI finally went through a correction and experienced a -1.42% pullback to 6827.75 level. The psychological number 7000 is still quite sacred to be the next psychological resistance. Be vigilant for gold stocks that experienced correction and potential pullback due to corrected underlying. Make sure to keep a tight watch, given that today and next week will be shorter trading days to provide cash positions to raid and buy on weakness in selected stocks.
Company News
• MAYA: 105 Percent Surplus, Rp11.27 Billion Profit in Q1-2025
• ASII: Astra Distributes the Remaining Dividend of Rp12.4 Trillion
• SRAJ: IDR 570 Billion Deficit in 1Q25
Domestic & Global News
Prabowo’s Instruction to Danantara on SOE Corporate Action
Trump Opens Opportunity to Lower China Import Tariffs ahead of Negotiations in Switzerland
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