Today’s Outlook:

• The S&P 500 moved 0.16% higher to close at 5,776.65, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.46% to close at 18,271.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher by 4.18 points, or 0.01%, to settle at 42,587.50. The S&P 500 posted a slim gain on Tuesday as investors built on the previous session’s gains, which were largely sparked by hopes of U.S. tariffs being narrower in scope. Investors largely looked past the March consumer confidence data released Tuesday, which reflected a significant drop in U.S. consumers’ near-term outlook on income, business, and job conditions.

• FIXED INCOME AND CURRENCY : The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield, after being slightly higher earlier, declined by 1.4 basis points to 4.317%. At the same time, the 2-year Treasury yield added to its losses, off 2 basis points at 4.017%. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Yields and prices have an inverse relationship. U.S. Treasury yields moved lower Tuesday following another dip in consumer confidence that showed optimism on the future hit its lowest in more than a decade. The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its expectations index plunged 9.6 points to a reading of 65.2, the worst level in 12 years and well below the 80 threshold consistent with recessions. The dollar weakened against the euro and yen on Tuesday as uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s planned tariffs kept traders cautious, following a rally in the U.S. currency a day earlier on optimism that he will be flexible in applying the import levies. The euro was last up 0.1% on the day at $1.08. It earlier fell to $1.0774, the lowest level since March 6. The euro, meanwhile, was boosted earlier by a survey showing that German business morale rose in March as companies expect a recovery after two years of contraction in Europe’s largest economy. The dollar fell 0.5% to 149.91 Japanese yen. It earlier reached a three week high of 150.94. Sterling edged up 0.21% to $1.2946 as traders looked towards the release of the spring statement on Wednesday in which British finance minister Rachel Reeves is expected to cut government spending to meet fiscal rules.

• EUROPE: The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed 0.67% higher, with most sectors and all major bourses in positive territory. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both ended around 1.1% higher Tuesday, as the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.3%. European markets closed higher on Tuesday as investors continued to assess the scope and breadth of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.

• -The euro was last up 0.1% on the day at $1.08. It earlier fell to $1.0774, the lowest level since March 6. The euro, meanwhile, was boosted earlier by a survey showing that German business morale rose in March as companies expect a recovery after two years of contraction in Europe’s largest economy.

• ASIA : Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index ended the day 2.35% lower at 23,344.25, while the Hang Seng Tech index plunged 3.82% to 5,517.52. Meanwhile, mainland China’s CSI 300 closed flat at 3,932.30. India’s benchmark Nifty 50 rose 0.32% while the broader BSE Sensex traded flat as at 1.45 p.m. local time. Japan’s benchmark  Nikkei 225 ended the day 0.46% higher at 37,780.54, while the broader Topix index increased 0.24% to 2,797.52. Over in South Korea, the Kospi index fell 0.62% to 2,615.81 while the small-cap Kosdaq declined 1.24% to 711.26. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended the day flat at 7,942.50. The country’s budget will be tabled by Treasurer Jim Chalmers at 7.30 p.m. Australian Eastern Daylight Time. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday as investors assessed U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

• -The Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.45% against the U.S. dollar to 16,625 at 11.36 a.m. Singapore time on Tuesday, after falling to its lowest level since June 1998. This comes after Bank Indonesia held the 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 5.75% in its meeting last week. Elsewhere in Asia, the Korean won was down 0.17% to 1,469.65 against the dollar while the Chinese yuan lost 0.11% against the dollar to 7.2613.

• COMMODITIES : Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,020.06 an ounce. U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% higher at $3,025.90. Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans for next week that could potentially boost inflation. Investors now await the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures data, due on Friday, for hints on further Fed’s policy moves. Brent crude futures rose 3 cents to close at $73.02 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 16 cents to settle at $69 per barrel. Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday after Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy agreed to a truce with Russia covering the Black Sea and energy infrastructure, though crude prices drew support from the prospect of tighter global supply due to threatened U.S. tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan production.

• JCI closed +1.21% higher yesterday to 6235.62 level, which was supported by the rally in state-owned big banks especially KBMI IV – Himbara BBRI, BMRI and BBNI (+5.26%, +6.28% and +4.84%) supported by attractive dividend yield catalyst and BRIS which closed +12.32% higher yesterday. Despite the significant rise in big banks yesterday, we should still be in a wait and see situation due to the unstable socio-political situation which causes the market to be volatile. JCI intraday resistance level is in 6270 – 6300 area.

Company News

• MEDC: MedcoEnergi Announces USD50 Million Share Buyback Program
• INDF: Minimalist Growth, INDF 2024 Profit Hits IDR8.64 Trillion
• EXCL: EXCL Sells Dividends of Rp1.12 Trillion, Here’s the Schedule

Domestic & Global News
Indonesian Furniture and Handicraft Exports at Risk of Being Stung by Trump’s 25% Tariff
Trump to Impose 25% Tariff on Countries Buying Venezuela’s Oil and Gas

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