Today’s Outlook:

• The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.3%. The 30-stock Dow lost 11.31 points, or 0.03%. Even as Fed policymakers kept their forecast for two rate cuts this year, they raised their inflation outlook and trimmed their economic growth expectations. The forecast raised the specter of stagflation – a scenario of rising inflation as the economy’s growth slows. Uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff policies has rattled stocks in recent weeks, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that tariffs may “delay” progress on inflation. It has been an ugly month, with the Nasdaq still sitting in correction – that is, more than 10% off its most recent peak – and the S&P 500 briefly touching correction territory last week.

• MARKET SENTIMENT : US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

• FIXED INCOME and CURRENCY : U.S. Treasury yields dipped on Thursday as investors weighed the state of the U.S. economy a day after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield slipped more than 1 basis point to 4.237%, and the 2-year Treasury yield was more than 1 basis point lower at 3.962%. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. The Fed’s announcement came as investors are increasingly concerned about a slowing U.S. economy, due to the effect of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies, particularly implementing tariffs on global trade partners. This has raised alarm bells about the possibility of a recession. Powell noted that the arrival of tariffs has put upward pressure on inflation expectations.The dollar appreciated broadly on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve indicated it was in no rush to cut interest rates further this year due to uncertainties around U.S. tariffs. The Swiss franc weakened after the Swiss National Bank lowered its policy rate to 0.25%, while the Swedish krona was soft after its central bank maintained its interest rate. The euro was 0.46% lower against the dollar at $1.0852 after U.S. policymakers, on Wednesday, held interest rates steady and signaled two quarter-point  interest rate cuts for later this year, the same median forecast as three months ago.

• EUROPE : The Stoxx 600 closed 0.43% lower, snapping a four-day winning streak. Germany’s DAX snapped a winning run on Wednesday and shed around another 1.2% on Thursday, while the Stoxx Aerospace and Defense Index was down 2% after five consecutive weeks of significant gains. European markets closed lower on Thursday, as global economic uncertainty cast a shadow over monetary policy announcements from the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Sweden’s Riksbank. The Bank of England held its key interest rate at 4.5% on Thursday, with the central bank warning of global trade uncertainty arising from new U.S. Shares of German engineering and defense group Thyssenkrupp lost early gains to decline 4%.

• -The euro was 0.46% lower against the dollar at $1.0852 after U.S. policymakers, on Wednesday, held interest rates steady and signaled two quarter-point interest rate cuts for later this year, the same median forecast as three months ago. As well as the Swiss franc, weaken against the U.S. dollar after the SNB cut its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 0.25%. Swiss annual inflation fell to an almost four-year low of 0.3% in February.

• ASIA : Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 2.16% and mainland China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.88% to close at 3,974.99, after China kept its key lending rates unchanged as Beijing juggles propping up growth and stabilizing its currency amid mounting trade frictions. The People’s Bank of China kept the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, where they have been since a quarter-percentage-point cut in October. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded 1.16% higher to close at 7,918.9. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.32% to close the trading day at 2,637.1 while the small-cap Kosdaq fell 1.79% to close at 725.15.

• -The Japanese yen dropped 0.35%, with USD/JPY at 148.7500, while the Chinese yuan edged up 0.08% to USD/CNY 7.2372, and the South Korean won gained 0.15%, with USD/KRW at 1,325.50. The yen weakened after the Bank of Japan held rates steady on March 18, 2025, post the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain rates, signaling no shift to counter a firm dollar. The yuan’s slight rise reflects China’s tight currency management amid stimulus hints, while the won’s advance ties to strong foreign inflows into Korean markets despite regional caution following the Fed’s stance.

• COMMODITY : Gold prices eased on Thursday after hitting a record high earlier in the session, but retained a bullish outlook driven by potential rate cuts signalled by the Federal Reserve and continuing geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,038.79 an ounce by 11:38 a.m. EDT (1538 GMT) due to profit-taking, after hitting a record high of $3,057.21. U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% higher at $3,043.80 per ounce. Gold Prices remain positive growth during economic uncertainty, underpinned by much higher hedging/investment demand on fears of US hard landing/stagflation. Brent crude futures gained $1.22, or 1.72%, to close at $72 a barrel. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) contract for April, expiring on Thursday, rose $1.10 to settle at $68.26. Oil prices rose on Thursday after the United States issued new Iran-related sanctions and renewed tensions in the Middle East countered strength in the dollar. The U.S. on Thursday issued new Iran-related sanctions, targeting entities including for the first time a Chinese “teapot”, or independent refinery, and vessels that supplied crude oil to such processing plants. However, U.S. crude inventories rose 1.7 million barrels, exceeding expectations for an increase of 512,000 barrels.

• JCI closed higher to 6381.67 (+1.11%), triggered by the price increase of one of the big caps issuers DCII which closed ARA and the revival of one of the stocks in Barito Group, TPIA which rose +15%. The market will still tend to be volatile as there is no significant net foreign buy yet. The next closest horizontal resistance is at 6375 level. However, we expect JCI to continue to be volatile amidst the ongoing conduciveness issues while testing and holding at the psychological support of 6000.

Company News

• TPIA: Chandra Asri to Complete Rp15T Chlor Alkali Plant Project
• CARS: 21% Surplus, CARS 2024 Earns Rp210.44 Billion
• SIDO: Sido Muncul Bosses Push Share Buyback to Tomorrow

Domestic & Global News
Indonesia parliament passes contentious amendments to military law
Ukraine strikes Russian strategic bomber airfield, triggering huge blast

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