Today’s Outlook:

• The S&P 500 climbed 2.13% to end at 5,638.94, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.61% to settle at 17,754.09. It was the best day in 2025 for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 674.62 points, or 1.65%, to close at 41,488.19 on Friday. U.S. futures fell after ending in negative territory last week on the back of new tariff threats from Trump. But Data showed U.S. retail sales rebounded by less than expected in February, signalling moderate economic growth despite import tariffs and federal worker layoffs dampening sentiment. Trump, meanwhile, said he plans to speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday and discuss ending the war in Ukraine.

• MARKET SENTIMENT : BI 7D RR & FOMC Meeting.

• FIXED INCOME AND CURRENCY : The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell on Monday as investors studied the latest retail sales report to gauge the state of consumer spending, and looked ahead to a big week. The 10-year Treasury note yield was down less than 1 basis point at 4.299%, while the 2-year Treasury yield was up more than 3 basis points at 4.048%. One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields move inversely to prices. Recession fears have been heightened lately as Wall Street tries to gauge the effect of President Donald Trump’s fast-changing tariff policies and retaliatory measures by major trading partners, as well as signs of weaker consumer sentiment, on economic growth and prices. The dollar hovered near a five-month low against the euro on Monday as investors worried about the economic fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies. The euro, which has advanced in recent sessions, lifted by hopes of a German fiscal deal, was 0.3% higher at $1.0914. The common currency was just shy of the $1.0947 it hit last week, its highest since October 11.Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan edged back towards its strongest level in four months in offshore trading, changing hands at 7.2332 per dollar. Last Wednesday, it strengthened to 7.2158 per dollar for the first time since November 13.

• EUROPE : The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed 0.79% higher, with all sectors bar chemicals in the green. British defense firm QinetiQ shed nearly 21%, tumbling to the bottom of the Stoxx 600, after the company made a downward revision to its revenue outlook for the year. Germany’s DAX, the U.K.’s FTSE 100, and France’s CAC 40 were all around 0.6% higher. European markets ended the week higher Friday after German lawmakers reportedly came closer to agreeing on reforming the country’s so-called debt brake rule. Media reports said Germany’s likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz had won support from the Greens party to hike public borrowing to allow an increase in defense spending.

• – The euro, which has advanced in recent sessions, lifted by hopes of a German fiscal deal, was 0.3%higher at $1.0914. The common currency was just shy of the $1.0947 it hit last week, its highest since October 11. The euro has strengthened after German parties on Friday agreed on a fiscal deal that could boost defense spending and revive growth in Europe’s largest economy. Analyst see the euro at $1.13 by year-end, up nearly 4% from current levels, and the yen at 139 per dollar, up about 7%.

• ASIA : Asia-Pacific markets mostly climbed on Monday, with investors keeping a close watch on Chinese equities. Mainland China’s CSI 300 closed 0.24% lower at 3,996.79, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.77% in its final hour. The Chinese government on Sunday announced a “Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption” to revive consumption by boosting people’s incomes. In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 ended the day 0.93% higher at 37,396.52, while the broader Topix index rose 1.19% to close at 2,748.12. Over in South Korea, the Kospi index advanced 1.73% to close at 2,610.69 while the small-cap Kosdaq added 1.26% to 743.51.India’s benchmark Nifty 50 had ticked up 0.35%, while the BSE Sensex increased 0.26% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended the day 0.83% higher at 7,854.10.

• -The dollar was 0.2% higher against the yen at 148.90 yen, not far from the five-month low of 146.52 touched last week. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan edged back towards its strongest level in four months in offshore trading, changing hands at 7.2332 per dollar. Last Wednesday, it strengthened to 7.2158 per dollar for the first time since November 13. On Sunday, China’s State Council announced a “special action plan” to boost domestic consumption featuring measures including increasing residents’ income and establishing a childcare subsidy scheme. While The Bank of Japan is tipped to keep interest rates steady when it meets on Wednesday, but the  conditions for another rate hike have been falling into place, with big Japanese irms offering bumper pay hikes in wage talks with unions for a third-straight year.

• COMMODITIES : Gold prices were steady on Monday, sitting around the $3,000 mark that was finally broken last week, with the focus on trade tariffs and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Spot gold added 0.4% to $2,997.51 an ounce, having hit a record high of $3,004.86 on Friday. U.S. gold futures edged up 0.2% to $3,005.6. Spot silver was unchanged at $33.78 an ounce and palladium added 0.2% to $967.27, while platinum gained 1% to $1,002.60. U.S. crude oil futures rose 40 cents, or 0.6%, to close at $67.58 per barrel. Global benchmark Brent gained 49 cents, or 0.69%, at settle at $71.07 per barrel. Oil prices rose on Monday after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would hold OPEC member Iran responsible for any future attack by the Houthis, a militant group in Yemen that has launched missile strikes on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and on Israel.

• – The dollar found little support from a Commerce Department report on Monday that showed retail sales rebounded moderately in February, after a revised 1.2% decline in January. The week is packed with central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, all of which are widely expected to hold fire as policymakers try to see through the current economic uncertainty.

• JCI declined -0.67% to 6471.95. It broke down below its soft support at 6531. We this is as a minor correction after rebounding from the 6245 major support line, as RSI formed a positive divergence signalling a strong upward swing. The long-term target for JCI will be for it to return back to 6952. While the Indonesian rupiah continues its depreciation trend, this week may be a pivotal as Bank Indonesia chooses to either hold or to cut for Mar-2025 which will show the central bank’s changing priorities in the Prabowo administration.

Company News

• SCMA: Surplus 77.77 Percent, SCMA 2024 Tabulated Profit Rp594.85 Billion
• SIDO: Sido Muncul Seeks Approval to Buyback Rp300M Shares
• BUVA: Happy Hapsoro’s Issuer Sells Assets in Labuan Bajo Rp799.06 Billion

Domestic & Global News
Discourse on Nickel Royalty Rate Increase, Some Miners Choose to Close Production
Overshadowed by Trump’s Tariff War, China’s Consumption Strengthens in Early 2025

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